Study On Risk Decision-Making Model Based On The Semi-Deviation Risk Messure

Investment project portfolio decision-making is the process during which the investors apply the principle of decision-making, analyze the subject and objective conditions systematicly, and choose the best project portfolio from several projects, in order to achieve benefit. Most of the investment decision-making is risk decision-making, and the process of decision-making is to balance the risk and the profit. Venture capital is a kind of investment with high risk and high benefit, because of which the investors must cautiously measure the project portfolio risk and make sure holisticly high profit through reasonable portfolio. But the existing portfolio decision-making models only emphasize the single project, and seldom study investment project portfolio. This paper will discuss how to measure the risk of project portfolio and balance the risk and benefit, and try to design the investment project portfolio risk decision-making model.Firstly, this paper outlines the conception of venture capital and venture capital portfolio, analyzes the source of risk and abstracts decision-making process. Then the paper summarizes the interrelated theories, differentiates the investment project portfolio and the financial investment portfolio, reviews the traditional models, and indicates the shortage of the existing model. In the end, the paper demonstrates the advantage of minimum risk effectual benefit model and the semi-deviation risk model, designs investment project portfolio decision-making model. The model can output the investment project portfolio with the minimum risk at established benefit. The characteristic of the model is providing a series optimized portfolio instead of giving an exclusive decision.