A Positive Study On The Farmer's Income Growth In Yunnan

This thesis is a positive study on farmer's income growth in Yunnan Province. Based on the reflection of the basic theory on this issue, the author analyzes the status in quo of farmer's income. The positive analysis first studies the relation between farmer's income and the economy development. Secondly, we analyze the relevant elements affecting farmer's income growth and measure its impact via econometric model. Especially, we analyze the relation between rural human capital and rural income growth. Lastly, we analyze the factors inhibiting farmer's income sustainable development. Having done these analysis, the author puts forwards some suggestions. The main conclusions and the suggestions are as follows.1. Conclusions(1)Since reform and opening up, farmer's income in Yunnan has been continuously slowly growing, and the urban-rural income disparity, the income gap between farmers, intra-regional farmers' income gap in Yunnan and the income gap between farmers in whole Yunnan and in whole China, are growing large. Slowly growth of Rural income and large income gap goes against rural living's improving, restrains farming expenditure from growing and rural Mass literacy from developing, hinders rural market expanding and goes against the realization of the well-off society in an all-around way.(2) We make a Cointegration test and a Granger Causality test on the farmer's income with the economy growth. We find, the relation between the farmer's income and the GDP is a Cointegration relation; the Granger Causality relation between the PGDP and the farmer' income in Yunnan is unilateral, PGDP is Granger Causality of the farmer's income, but the farmer's income is not Granger Causality of PGDP.(3) We choose many variables stand for the relevant elements affecting the farmer's income, and via multiplied regression model, we estimate their elasticity; in the mean time, the author analyzes the relation between the farmer's income and rural education (by years). We find, the income elasticity of farming acreage is negative, others are positive. Sort by the elasticity in descendent order, we get the impact of these variables on the farmer' income: the rate of population urbanization (0.196) > the proportion of labor not engaged in agriculture with rural labor force (0.1174) > gross output value of farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (0.0914) > total power of agricultural machinery (0.0644) > government expenditure for agriculture (0.0267) > gross output value of rural industry (0.0196) > price index of agricultural product (0.0154). It is proved that the relation between the farmer's income and years of education of rural labor is a Cointegration relation, and the years of education of rural labor is Granger Causality of the farmer' income, but only approximatively 5% level significant, the farmer's income is not Granger Causality of the years of education of rural labor.(4) Analyzing the constraints of the farmer's income sustainable development, we find the main constraints are as follows. Farming condition is not good, and expenditure for agriculture is low; the structure of agriculture is unreasonable, which changes slowly; the level of agriculture modernization and industrialization is low, and agricultural leading enterprises doesn't develop very well, the farmer's cooperatives are not strong; rural industrialization and urbanization is so slow that agricultural surplus labor migration is constrained, in addition, urban-rural dual-structured economy transforms so slowly, which hinders urban-rural integration realization.2. Suggestions(1) We must stabilize the agriculture productions, and make great effort to change agricultural structure and transform traditional agriculture, promoting agriculture development and the income getting from agriculture growing.(2) We must create kinds of reasonable conditions to support and foster agricultural leading enterprises, in the mean time, with Agricultural industrialization projects, strengthen agricultural base construction; based on leading industry and leading enterprises, we should positively nurture industry association and the farmer's cooperative organization, consolidating the interest-linked mechanism between farmers and the leading enterprises.(3) We must abolish the system of urban-rural dual register of resident and these discriminated policies, quickening the reform of the urban-rural dual structured economy. In addition, we should foster urban-rural unified labor market and implement unified employment policies; furthermore, we should push forward the process of rural industrialization and rural urbanization.(4) The government should increase expenditure on rural social utilities and guide social capital to invest in rural areas, expand the coverage of rural social secure, and improve rural new-type cooperative medical system. In addition, we should push forward the development of rural education, improving the farmer's culture and education level, strengthening farmer's capability and skills.