A Research On Early-warning Management Of R&D Project Risk

Along with the development tenor of global science and technology (S&T) becoming faster, innovation has become the main source by which the enterprises create competition advantages, and knowledge has also become the important factor which is established the market value of an enterprise for the sake of helping realize the creation and accumulation of value. As the research item is the platform where the enterprises realize the innovation of S&T and the digging of knowledge, it has played a more and more important role in the development of an enterprise, moreover, it has core effect on the course of optimizing the resource deploy and accelerating the technique regeneration and so on. But from the situation in implementing research items, we can find that the failure rate of the research items is the highest in all kinds of items, which badly restrict the enterprises' development step. So doing research on risk early-warning management of research items,carrying out active risk keeping away is an important strategy research topic which can strengthen research development ability of enterprises,increase success rate of research items,drive independent innovation to a new step.This thesis sets up risk early-warning management frame of research items as research main body, firstly from academic angle, mainly does research on the connotation of risk in research items, screens the risk factors of research items, analyzes risk characteristic; secondly synthetically uses the theories of risk management, the theories of early-warning management, the conception, function, process of system theory analyzing risk early-warning management in research items, system and early-warning index system, alarm level and so on to set up a total-divided management thinking way of risk early-warning management in research items; and then from the "divided" angle, explores the early-warning management principles and method of schedule,cost,quality in research items which are three big key risk dimensionalities, sets up the risk early-warning models in research items separately based on schedule,cost,quality, brings forward corresponding risk early-controlling measures; finally making the research item of KMS enterprise as platform does demonstration analysis on risk early-warning management in research items.The thesis obtains the achievements as follows by exercising the method of theoretical study in combination with empirical analysis, and synthetically using the method of case analysis and system synthesis evaluation and so on: the connotation of R&D project risk is defined, the selection process of R&D project risk is expounded, and the R&D project risk map is drawn; the concept, function, process of early-warning management in R&D project risk is clarified, the general-divided early-warning management of R&D project risk is constructed, and the integrated dynamic early-warning management system of R&D project total risk based on knowledge is built too; on the fundament of that, the early-warning index system of R&D total risk is established, the early-warning evaluation and alarming classification process of total risk based on SPA is demonstrated, and the corresponding countermeasures of risk preventing is proposed as well; simultaneously, the early-warning management model of R&D project schedule risk based on PERT and of R&D project cost risk based on ARCH are built, and the PDCEA cycle paradigm of early-warning management in R&D project quality risk is suggested via combing the characteristic of schedule, cost, quality in R&D project.