Research On Risk Early Warning And Control In Expressway Project Operation

In China, systemic planning and construction about expressway has been in progress over the past ten years and more, which acted to promote the development of national economic and social development greatly. At the same time, due to the complexity, systematic-ness, technology-intensive and sociality of the expressway project operation, more and more risks are faced by expressway operators, and economic losses and difficult in making decisions of risk management caused by risks are also increasing. In this context, an analysis of problems and risk factors existing in the process of expressway project operation in China was carried on firstly, from the standpoint of expressway project operating company, theories and methods about risk early-warning and control in expressway project operation are explored.First of all, existing literature and relevant basic theories were sorted out and analyzed. On the basis of that, risk early-warning was taken as the core, and operational risk management framework in expressway project, including three basic process:risk identification, risk early-warning, risk control, was constructed. Among them, individual and comprehensive risk early-warning were included. Compared with the traditional risk management framework, this framework highlighted central role of risk early-warning, underlined beforehand control and quantized analysis. Study on theories and methods of risk identification, risk early-warning, risk control was carried out under this framework.In the analysis of risk identification and mechanism analysis, the necessary condition for the existence of risk was analyzed. The concept of operational risk in expressway project was defined. Operational management characteristics and risk characteristics in expressway project were analyzed. Through expressway traffic accidents statistical analysis and operational management investigation in Hunan Provenance, operational risk factors would be identified. In terms of operational corporate, considering the cause of formation and controllability about risk, operational risk in expressway project was divided into there kinds:natural risk, economic risk and behavioral risk. Analysis of formation mechanism about natural risks was carried on from two aspects:characteristics and contributing factors of hazard caused by climate. In terms of operational financial management in expressway project, formation mechanism of economic risk was analyzed using principle of economic leverage. Led by game theory, subject game models under management mode of facilities and business were constructed. Including motivational game model between government and traffic department, supervisory game model between traffic department and project operational company, and imperfect information dynamic game model among customer, operational company in expressway project, government. Risk formation mechanism of subject behaviors in the process of operation in expressway project was further discussed.In the work of risk early-warning, based on objective risk theory, adaptive exponential smooth early-warning model of natural risk was constructed. Taking financial indicators such as indicators of solvency, operational capability, profitability, growth capacity as main indicators, operational economic risk early-warning indicator system in expressway project was built, prediction of risk indicator value was carried on by curve fitting, while early-warning was carried on by method of single indicators early-warning. Threshold of early-warning was explored, and operational economic risk indicators in expressway project were compared with financial early-warning indicators in general corporate. in terms of the behavior of government public regulation, the behavior in internal operational corporate of expressway project, the behavior of customer and the behavior of competitors, operation behavior risk index system of expressway project was built, then gray/regressive-hierarchic analysis early-warning model was established. On the basis of the study on theories and methods about individual risk early warning, operational risk comprehensive early warning in expressway project by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and BP neural network was tried out. Operational risk fuzzy comprehensive early warning model and BP artificial neural network comprehensive early warning model were set up respectively.In the study of risk control, in terms of exiting security management organization of operational management in expressway project, risk early warning and control organization was constructed, and departmental function was divided reasonably. Risk early warning and control operation process in expressway project operation was designed. Operation mechanism of unified command and three-level response to general natural risk, economic risk and behavioral risk was designed, and corresponding response approach was elaborated. To the risk having no signs, response mechanism was designed for emergency, and urgent response process was designed for the gusty natural risk and behavioral risk. Finally, relevant historical operational data in Hunan TS Expressway Project from 2003-2008 were collected. Through the risk early-warning model constructed, conclusions of light warning about single natural risk, economic risk and behavioral risk were extracted. On this basis, risk comprehensive early-warning of TS expressway project operation in 2009 was pursued through fuzzy comprehensive early warning model and 29×5×1BP neural network comprehensive early warning model. Conclusions between two models were consistent, which were all light warning. Corresponding measures of control and response would be adopted in terms of early-warning level.A set of whole system about operational risk identification-early warning-control in expressway project was established, on which the theories and methods was elaborated. Risk management theory in the stage of expressway project operation and behavioral risk early warning theory within organization were improved and enriched by research achievements, which would give certain guidance and reference to operational risk management practice in expressway project.