| According to widespread with traditional viewpoint, the basic function of futures market is price discover and hedge, they have important function to the supply which stabilizes spot market price and regulates a market, and this be also the futures sill of market existence and development. Among them, the price discovers is the function that is placed in a futures market the core position .The futures market of our country agricultural product through the development for more than ten years, the price discovers function has already been presented. But the futures market of our country still belongs to a newly arisen market and comparing for the Europe and America flourishing lasting a hundred years attain of level, the exertive condition of our country agricultural product futures price discover function still have a very big margin. Therefore the research that how the discover function of Chinese market price of the agricultural product futures is developing is still keep being of important.The text introduction part looks back the related research of agricultural futures price discover function and elaborate textual research method; Chapter 2 looks back the creation of futures market and review the development of Chinese and Foreign futures market ,and analysis the mechanism of the price discover function of futures market; Chapter 3 carries on a substantial evidence examination of the price discover function of Chinese agricultural futures market exertive condition taking wheat, soybean as a representative. And make use of relativity analysis, the Johansen cointegration theory, Granger test, impulse response function and variance decomposition, then substantial evidence expresses that the price discover function of the Chinese agricultural futures market has already been obvious of exertive, but because of the influence of various factor of species, the price discovers function exertive condition dissimilarity, for example the exertion of the price discover function at the soybean futures market is obviously stronger than the wheat futures market; Therefore, chapter 4 looks for various factor which influence two futures market prices discover function from the characteristics that soybean and wheat futures market respectively circulates, then deduce the factor of influencing Chinese agricultural product futures market, and put forward solving a countermeasure. |
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