The Research On The Interrelationship Between Business Cycle Phases And Fixed-asset Investmennts

Business cycle theory played an important role in macroeconomic research. Social economy has been developing continuously, with the characteristic of cycle changes. Since the establishment of China, we have made great achievements in the economic construction. However, the economic development has followed an unsmooth way with periodic fluctuation. Fixed capital investments exerted a great influence on economic fluctuation. The prosperity and depression of economy always went with expansion and contraction of investment. Therefore, there is practical and realistic significance in the research of business cycle phases and fixed capital investments in China.In this dissertation, business cycle phases and fixed capital investments in China were analyzed from three aspects. First, the status of capital investments'scales were reviewed in every business cycle phase, before and after the reforming and opening, and the interaction mechanism between the above two was analyzed, as a foundation for further study hereinafter.Second, an econometric model was introduced to analyze the connection between social fixed-asset investments and GDP empirically. Based on the statistics of national economy between 1953 and 2005, this dissertation respectively studied the interrelation between social fixed-asset investments and GDP during the expansion phase and contraction phase. Since the establishment of China, both the expansion phase and contraction phase of business cycle have had a long-term steady relation and short-term dynamic equilibrium mechanism. The reason why economic cycle would not continue to expand or contract was analyzed.At last, there was a monitoring precautionary model between GDP's growth rate and fixed-asset investment scale, and based on the respective index, we could determine the warning interval and non-warning interval between GDP's growth rate and fixed-asset investment scale. In addition, the studies revealed that while the growth rate of fixed-asset investment was in the region of slightly-warning region or heavily-warning region, usually the growth rate of GDP was in the interval of alarming. And that when the growth rate of fixed-asset investment was in the safe region, usually the growth rate of GDP was in the interval of non-warning. Precautionary analyses could help to understand the developments of them, and we could adjust them in time. Based on the analyses of the connection between business cycle phases and fixed asset investment, we must harmonize the relation between fixed-asset investment and the growth rate of GDP, to make a sustainable and steady development of the economy in China. And this requires the government can adjust the investment scale and the investment structure, increase the efficiency of investment, and speed up the transition of way of economic development. Then the economic development and fixed-asset investment would get into a benign interaction.