An Empirical Study Of Financial Early-warning Model For Listed Companies Of Our Country

In the thesis the listed companies in both Shanghai Security Exchange and Shenzhen Security Exchange are selected as research objects, the author selects the financial ratios in 23 industries, and make a classify about these industries. Then author pick up two classical industries to set up their own financial early-warning models.Firstly, the initial model variables include 24 financial ratios which are proved to be sensitive to forecast financial crisis in precious literature research. The author uses the method of factor analysis to select the main factors and explain the economic meanings. Then, author using the SPSS software to classify the 23 industries according to the main factors. The author selects two classical industries to analysis and examines the results.Secondly, the author uses the way of combining Factor analysis and Logistic analysis to set up the financial early-warning model for the two industries and examine the results, the right percentage for the two years before the financial crises are 88.88% and 84.37% each, the wrong percentage for the two years before the financial crises are 11.12% and 15.63% each.The research discovered that different industries have different characteristics. We should do the analysis according to the different industries when we are doing the financial early-warning research, and set up different models for different industries. Finally, the paper discusses the model application superiority, the problems which should be noticed with application, the flaw, the improvement conceived of financial early-warning.