Mathematical Model Of Maximum Possibility Restricted By Least Uncertainty Of Minerel Resource Assessment

At present, the main problem of the forecasting models of mineral resources based on the theory of probability is that they ignore the cause of the uncertainties of geological data and idealization of geological processes and phenomenon, on the assumption that data accord with some probable distribution, so the current statistical methods of data is relatively imprecise. After studying the uncertain factors of the geological data and the possibility of fuzzy math theory and the great possibility of the estimated parameter methods, the author of this paper brings forward a mathematical prediction method in mineral resources ---Method of the Maximum Possibility and the Minimum Fuzzy Range (MMPMFR). the author puts forward the concept of resources quantity probability in the final results and gives the corresponding formula.The forecasting model of MMPMFR is based on the fuzzy linear model and uses the mathematical model applied new estimation method. The determination of the model lies on the decided fuzzy coefficient, and fuzzy coefficient is symmetric fuzzy number. The author gives the definition of symmetric fuzzy, function expression and the definition ofλcutset symmetric fuzzy number. Making use ofλcutset symmetric fuzzy number and the expression, the author gives the rule to calculate the symmetric fuzzy coefficient, for advanceλcutset and under restricted condition that demands the fitting limit of each equation estimation is not less than the standard fitting limit, and making the coefficient of integrated fuzzy number to a minimum, so fuzzy coefficient of determination can be transformed into solving linear programming problems.However, when symmetric fuzzy function is certain, for the different standards specified fitting, model solutions are also different. Hence there also needs a binding constraint conditions on the model to determine the only solution. According to the possibility of principle, the dependent variable yi is better for the possibility of greater symmetry centre better. When it is greatest, the result is optimal. Therefore, the other constraint condition: When m dependent variable yi the sum of the possibility of its symmetric center poss ( yi ) is the largest for m dependent variable yi , at this point, the results are unique.In this model to solve the problem, because it is affected by the two co-composed coefficients, the author uses determined coefficient matrix to calculate the right solution symmetric center, and calculate final symmetry centre utilizing iterative thereby to compute the coefficients by way of solving fuzzy rate. Iterative condition is that the two adjacent symmetry centre difference is greater than a set value. In order to solve coefficients, the original data matrix will be added a unit vector in front of the first row, and this method makes solving process simplified, succinct and clear.Because quadratic parabola fuzzy numbers compared to other fuzzy numbers used in the analysis of error has the process of good results, the mathematical models of quadratic parabola fuzzy numbers all are used to solve the great possibility of the minimum rate of fuzzy model and example. On the expression of the results of the model, the author brings forward the possible resources of the concept and the formula, which express the capability of some quantity of mineral resources in some region. From another angle, the resources quantity probability interprets the problem of the mineral resources.