| Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries in 1972, the economic and commercial ties between China and New Zealand have been maintaining a steady and robust development. Among all these ties, the bilateral import and export trade of horticultural products have progressed tremendously during the past ten years, which was embodied in the multifold growth. In May 2004, the representative of the Chinese government, signed the 'Commercial and economic cooperation frame agreement between China and New Zealand' with that of the New Zealand. The endorsement of this Agreement indicated that China and New Zealand were certain to carry out the feasibility analysis of the Sino-New Zealand FTA negotiation. Since the official start-up of the Sino-New Zealand FTA negotiation in November 2004, the two sides have already undergone 11 rounds of consultations and negotiations. It is forecasted that the Sino-New Zealand FTA is bound to come into existence during the period of between April 2007 and April 2008.And this will be the first FTA between a developed country and the biggest developing country in the world. The establishment of Sino-New Zealand FTA will definitely influence the bilateral horticultural trade of the two countries to some extent; simultaneously it will bring opportunities to the further development of the bilateral horticultural trade as well.In order to know the influence and opportunities brought along, above all it's necessary to see clearly the relations of the bilateral horticultural trade between the two countries. This paper makes clear the trade relations, based on the analysis of the comparative advantage of the horticultural products; then it classifies the products which either bear the competitiveness or complementarities among all the horticultural products so as to probe into the basis of cooperation for the bilateral horticultural trade; afterwards this paper especially analyses whether those complementary products still possess certain trade potentials for further their bilateral trade, then it analyses the possible effects brought by the founding of the Sino-New Zealand FTA; eventually the suggestions for policy-making are put forwards.The study shows that the bilateral horticultural trade between China and New Zealand mainly carried out in the form of intra-industry trade. The bilateral trade relations are not only composed of competitiveness but also complementarities; nevertheless the complementarities take the leading part. Among the products of competitiveness, our side has some horticultural products which haven't fully explored their inborn comparative advantages during the commercial intercourse with New Zealand, that is to say, the New Zealand's export of a certain product to China surpasses that of China's to New Zealand. Among those complementary products, half of them still possess the potentials for further trade. The establishment of Sino-New Zealand FTA brings good effects to both countries, due to the relatively large reduction space of the custom tariffs of China's horticultural products, New Zealand will harvest more trade creation effects than China; both will not be much affected by the trade diversion effects; the export expansion effects will benefit China more than New Zealand.According to the above study, this paper puts forwards certain suggestions. First of all, it's necessary to actively adjust the production structure of horticultural products in accordance to the principle of Comparative Advantage, and let those which haven't completely explored their comparative advantage in the previous trade intercourse release their full potential; secondly, give more trade preferential policies to the complementary products especially those which bear great trade potential; thirdly government should play an active role in promoting the development of bilateral horticultural trade between China and New Zealand; finally, learn from the successfully-founded FTA, using their experiences for reference. |
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