The Research On Financial Crisis Pre-Warning Models Of Chinese Manufacturing Listed Companies

Any entity may fall into the crisis. Seeing from the field that crisistakes place, we'll know that the crisis is embodied in operating crisis andfinancial crisis. There are a lot of factors causing enterprises to form thecrisis, such as, the change of market economy environment, the change ofconsumption demand, the development of science and technology, theoperator's professional qualifications and experience of management, andso on. But in any case, a large amount of enterprise crisis often appearswith the financial crisis. The financial crisis is the most remarkable andcomprehensive behavior in enterprise's crisis. The financial crisis oflisted companies stems from lots of reasons, but each has a continuousprocess. Therefore, predicting the financial crisis, revealing the risk andadopting effective measures to avoid special treatment has been paidmore attention by administering authority of listed companies, investors,creditors and other interest related parties.The study of the dissertation is on the basis of domestic andinternational pre-warning theories and models of financial crisis. The job mainly includes such parts as follows:1. The importance and theories of the study, how the study is goingon at home and abroad are systematically introduced.2. Making a detailed statement of the steps, methods and principlesused in structuring enterprises' financial crisis pre-warning models.Including how to establish the indexes system, the statistical test of theseindexes and how to choose model according to the features of the datum.3. According to the principles mentioned above, a empirical modelis built. This model uses 60 Chinese manufacturing listed companies assamples, at first, use factor analysis to abstract several principalcomponents to simplify the indexes, and then use these principalcomponents to build a logistic model. This model is proved to have highaccuracy by being tested by another 30 samples.4. Try to discuss the way to combine the quantitative methods withthe qualitative methods by using weighed method.5. At last, put forward some suggestions for the studies later.