Aero Equipment Demand Forecasting Research Based On Equipment Maintenance Support

With the application of new military strategies and high techniques in aero equipments, Equipment Maintenance Support has been challenged and changed from a pure technical activity to a complicated problem related to System Engineering. Here Equipment Maintenance Support Engineering means to use the systemic viewpoint, methods in Systems Engineering and other modern science and techniques so as to standardize and optimize the maintenance support scheme, to confirm the maintenance resources, and to actualize them, other well-regulated processes as well. That is to say, implement planning, organization, association, decision-making and control upon equipment maintenance activities while using the theory and methods of modern management and science. Based on this, a full-scale research of aero equipment demand forecasting model is explored after we obtain a field survey, in this dissertation, which mainly include the following:Firstly according to the modern aero equipment maintenance theory, aircraft spare part has been divided into three parts: breakdown maintained equipments, hard time maintained equipments and on-condition maintained equipments. For the first two parts, we build two forecasting models based respectively on the Poisson Distribution and the Gradual Normal Distribution. The moment we get correlation relations between demands of aircraft spare part and its corresponding time slices, we can use a multi curve regression to build the demand forecasting model for breakdown maintained equipments. And after optimizing the maintenance cycle under different object functions, we can also get another optimal model for hard time maintained equipments.As for aero equipment under on-condition maintenance, we first introduce its theoretic foundation. After the substantive study and contrast analysis of the existing optimal models, we represent the time serial analysis to achieve the secular trend index, seasonal fluctuation index, cyclical variation index and irregular variation index, and then obtain the general idea of development rule of aero equipments in our air force. Finally a demand forecasting model related to on-condition maintained equipments was represented by a first index smooth model and a second index smooth model.Broadly speaking, with a field survey in an air division, more details about aero equipment and maintenance is obtained, and then an optimized demand forecasting model, combining stochastic process theory and mathematical analysis and statistic theory, is represented which have a significant meaning to our aero management departments and logistics management departments. It can be used not only to confirm and optimize maintenance support resources, and indirectly accelerate our force development in two aspects of mechanization and communication. What is more, the study on aero equipment demand forecasting will help and conduct airline companies while ordering aero equipments.