| In past 10 years, economics and society have developed highly and urbanization and industrialization have improved by leaps and bounds in Fujian province. Construction use land extends quickly, a great deal of cultivated land is taken up.Fujian province has a large population and has few lands. The antinomy between Person and ground is more sharp.The land bottleneck effect to economics development is apparent gradually.How to resolve the antinomy between economic development and protecting the arable land, to improve cultivated landuse intensive degree and to guarantee my province food safety is a current initial problem.This research data source comes from the land alteration data and the statistics annals through the years for Fujian, study time from 1996 to 2005,Adoptiing GIS,Statistics method and mathematics model.Deeply study change of with the frame and the quantity of the cultivated landthoroughly, the cultivated landConversion directions of cultivated land and area differentiation, the time and space change of the cultivated landuse intensity, the driving forces of cultivated landdecrease , variety trend estimation in arable land, potential of the cultivated landsecond resources.Research results as follows:(1) In view of the change extent of cultivated land, littoral land cultivated landquantity variety exists larger than binnentief land and the whole province. To the whole province or nine cities, although the area of irrigable land and vegetable plot is little,the change extent is large in the second land sort. In view of the change veloity of cultivated land, the change velocity of the littoral is larger than that of the binnentief land,Xiamen is largest and the most frequent in volicity and the change of the cultivated landand other land sort,the district discrepancy is apparent.In the second land sort of the cultivated landof the Fujian province and the nine cities, sewage irrigated field is the largest but vegetable plot is least. Contrasting to the inverse proportion of every second land sort, the basic pattern keep steadly.To the most districts, the change range of sewage irrigated field, wangtian cropland and dry land is large in structural readjustment. Irrigable land and vegetable plot is little and steady.(2) The cultivated landmainly flow to the resident and the work mineral uses ground(35．47%)),garden plot(25．11%) and no use land(12．95%).According to land sort which the cultivated landflow to,the whole province is dichotomized:one is Fuzhou City,Xiamen City,QUanzhou City,Putan City and Ningde City of the development al economy,thecultivated landmainly flow to the resident and the work mineral uses ground,and proportion is 30．74%,47．40%,43．45%,39．66% and 33．68%,the most arrives at half. The next place is griculture construction land adjustment. The other including Zhangzhou City, Sanming City, Longyan City and Nanping City.where the arable ,land change into other land sorts of agricultural use.The switch to the cultivated landis consistent in Fujian province and nine cities.The construction land seldom change into the arable land.The main land sorts are other lands of agriculuture.In comprehensive consideration,the cultivated landdcreases in totel.The change of the lands of ageiculture,no use land and the cultivated landis frequent.In the nine cities of Fujian province,the changes of the cultivated landpresent net decrease.The net decrease of Quzhou is largest.Besides Xiamen whose area is little and bring on the net change is the least,other districts present decrease apparently.(3) The system of the arable intensive use and AHP can well appraise the intensive degree of the cultivated landuse.In all factors, multiple-crop index is the most important fator,the second place is the quantity of fertilized use in unit area.the last is the foodstuff yield in unit area.the most effective factor to intensive use level of the cultivated landis the intensity of cultivated landuse,and the least is using benefit,which shows that the level of intensive use is decided by the farming will of peasantry.From 1996 to 2005, the level of the cultivated landintensive use assumes upward trend which is not steady.the district difference of level of the cultivated landintensive use is obvious.The spatial parallelism nature between social and economic development and level of the cultivated landintensive use is not evident. The level of the cultivated landintensive use is highest in Zhangzhou but Nanping is lowest.(4) On the premise of qualitative analysis, the relation of cultivated landdecrease and drive factors is qualitatively analysed by grey relative degree method .The results indicate:①GDP, the total population and the urbanized level which partly list frist three influence cultivated landdecreae in Fujian province. The proportion of forestry, herd and fishery production value account for agricultural total production value, mileage in highway open to traffic and secondary industry output value has little effect on the cultivated landdecrease in Fujian.②From drive facters sort which influence biggestly.Fuzhou City is tertiary industry, Xiamen City is urbanization level, Putian city is a city person which has all controllable income, Quanzhou City is urbanization level, Zhangzhou City is GDP, Ningde city is the third industry production value, Sanming City is urbanization level, Longyan City is mileage in highway open to traffic, Nanping City is a total population. See from each connection preface, the main reason which drives the cultivated land decrease can generalize to turn a horizontal exaltation for the city, synthesizing the increment of economic power, the third industry promoting, exaltation of residents' income and gricultural internal structure adjustment,which is similar with the whole province. The social and economic oppositely flourishing foreland, the factors which drive its cultivated land decrease is laid particular emphas is on in an industrial structure more of excellent turn, residents the income raise, life level improvement;but the inland region is laid particular emphasis on in a comprehensive economic power to promote, infrastructure of perfect with the increment of the population. Some contributions which establish economy in the area City development to change to the cultivated land return a not equal to infrastructure, appearing to pay attention to a town development, but the economic development isn't very high, land's ising intensive to make use of level isn't very high, the town development appeared certain"the stand big round flat cake" of the degree blindness phenomenon. The dominant factors have some commonness and district discrepancy.(5) The familiar forecast method of the cultivated landtrend contains three sorts, decomposed estimate, economic mutuality estimate, and economic mathematic estimate.The ideal method is time sequence gray system model.The study show: the result of gray forecast is credible, and cultivated landarea is below 130,000 hectares, and region change difference is large.(6) The resources potential of Fujian province cultivated land adds up to 200957．08 hectares. Seeing from the type, cultivated land sorting the potential is the biggest, having 39．8%, the second place is cultivated land sorting and smear inning, having 13．9%. Seeing from the district, Zhangzhou City cultivated land resources potential is the biggest; accounting for 21．1% of the whole province potential total amount, Xiamen City is minimum, accounting for 2% only. The spare resources of cultivated land in Fujian mainly includes three types,the salting type alongside the sea with in the plain,the bottomland type in the river valley and a red soil type in mound mountainous country area.The different type is developing to make use of accordingly adopting certain measure, in order to comprehensive the performance maximize. |
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