Quantitative Analysis Of Regional Economic Growth And Macroeconomic Fluctuation

Since the beginning of reform and opening up, Chinese rapid economic development has attracted the attention of numerous domestic and foreign scholars. In the process of economic expanding, some economic phenomena and regional economic inequalities in development caused by macroeconomic cyclical fluctuation become the hot spot and keystone of the macroeconomic and regional economic issues which scholars study. In this domain, macroeconomic and regional economic theories are relatively mature; there are all kinds of methods and means to research. On the aspect of researching macroeconomic cyclical fluctuation, many documents use mostly multifarious econometric models on the analysis to the cause of macroeconomic cyclical fluctuation as well as the tendencies; Research regional economic inequalities is mainly based on various indices and convergence analysis of economic inequalities and the change tendencies.Although there are so many documents on macroeconomic cyclical fluctuation and regional economic inequalities, summarized, it is a universal problem, which is very little research on the combination of the two. In fact, there are strong mutual influencing relationships between the two. The isolation research neglects the kind of relationships, when makes the quantitative analysis, it cannot be accurate to grasp the inherent laws and the characteristic between macroeconomic cyclical fluctuation and regional economic inequalities.To solve the above problem, this article has conducted the analysis from a new perspective on Chinese macroeconomic cyclical fluctuation and regional economic inequalities. The paper selects per capita GDP as a measure of economic indicators, other economic indicators include: per capita GDP growth quantity, per capita GDP development speed as well as per capita GDP growth velocity, the three indicators are derived from the per capita GDP. The research spatial region includes 31 provinces, municipalities directly under the Central Government, and autonomous regions. The 31 provincial-level regions are divided into four major economic zones. The time span is from 1978 to 2005 in period of 28 years. The paper selects Theil index and weighted coefficients and nonlinear regression models as research means.In theory part, the paper redefines Theil index expression at first. Each variable used all is the per capita value. Next, the paper has inferred the decomposition formulas in detail, quite a part of decomposition formulas are currently the research in the aspect which other domestic research documents do no have at the present.In empirical analysis, this article uses Theil index to analyze countrywide provincial inequalities, provincial inequalities in each four major economic zones, and zonal inequalities, and then, analyzes the provincial inequalities in each economic zones and zonal inequalities to the national inequalities share contribution. The results indicate that, per capita GDP nationally provincial disparity shows the"V"tendency from 1978 to 2005 in the main. The provincial disparity decreased gradually from the beginning of 1978 to 1990, when to 1990, the provincial per capita GDP disparity was smallest, hereafter the disparity started to increase unceasingly. Per capita GDP disparity in Eastern zone is reducing, that has not appeared any fluctuation. In the Middle zone, per capita GDP inequalities change quite is fierce; the situation of the inequalities increases and decreases appears in turn. The per capita GDP disparity is decreasing overall. The situation of per capita GDP disparity change in the Northeastern zone is quite similar to the Middle zone, what is different, that the disparity change fierce time appeared from 1988 to 1996 in Northeast while the fierce time appearance at the beginning of opening up in Middle zone. During four zones, only per capita GDP disparity increases in West, from 1978 to 2005, there was a short time before1990 when the disparity decreased, after that the disparity was increasing. Zonal inequalities are increasing. Compared with provincial inequalities in each four zones to the national per capita GDP inequalities share contribution, it is found that per capita GDP inequalities in the eastern zone is the largest share of the contribution, Despite the decrease in the share of contributions to the east, but it remains significantly higher than the other three areas. From 1988, the disparity between the four zones became the main influence part of national per capita GDP disparity, its contribution share has surpassed 50%, moreover continuously was increasing.In the second part of Empirical analysis, this article uses the weighted coefficient of variation to analyze provincial per capita GDP inequalities, per capita GDP growth quantity inequalities, per capita GDP development speed and per capita GDP growth velocity. Using the weighted coefficient of variation to analyze provincial per capita GDP growth quantity inequalities, per capita GDP development speed and per capita GDP growth velocity is not found in the former documents. Despite the different methods, but the results of using weighted coefficient of variation to analyze the per capita GDP inequalities are consistent with in the use of Theil index Analysis of the results. Based on fluctuations appeared, the change situation of per capita GDP growth quantity inter-regional inequalities is divided into three stages. In each stage, the range of fluctuations gradually increasing, that indicates per capita GDP growth quantity inter-regional inequalities is more complicated. The inter-regional inequalities situation of per capita GDP development speed and per capita GDP growth velocity can also be divided into three changes stages, the beginning and end time is same, the change drastic time all is appears in first and the third stage.The third part of Empirical analysis is the core part of this paper, where the main purpose of this paper is located, that is Quantitative Analysis of Regional Economic Growth and Macroeconomic Fluctuation. In this part, taking the weighted coefficient of variation of per capita GDP inequalities, per capita GDP growth quantity inequalities, per capita GDP development speed and per capita GDP growth velocity as explained variable respectively and per capita GDP growth rate as explanatory variable ,establishes exponent model, power function model and quadratic model three nonlinear regression models. During the three nonlinear regression models in which the weighted coefficient of variation of per capita GDP is dependent variable and per capita GDP growth rate is independent variable, the quadratic model is the best, per capita GDP inter-regional inequalities with the macroeconomic fluctuation presents first decreased and then increased trends. Taking the weighted coefficient of variation of per capita GDP growth quantity as dependent variable and per capita GDP growth rate as independent variable, exponent model is better than the other two, per capita GDP growth quantity disparity in decreased gradually with macroeconomic growth. If per capita GDP development speed and per capita GDP growth velocity are dependent variable and per capita GDP growth rate is independent variable, the quadratic model is the best of the three. The difference is that the former regression coefficient estimates is negative while the letter is positive. This shows that per capita GDP development speed disparity first decreased and then increased with macroeconomic fluctuation while per capita GDP growth velocity disparity showing the first rise after a downward trend. Used four different from each other but linked by strong economic indicators to analyze the relationship of regional economic inequalities and macroeconomic fluctuation avoids the appearance which only analyzed the single economic index can not make a comprehensive, accurate judgment on practical impact of regional economic inequalities by the macroeconomic fluctuations.In summary, this article has conducted the analysis research from a brand-new angle of view to the relations between macroeconomic fluctuations and the regional economic growth imbalance and provides a beneficial design idea to further analyze the change influence effect to each other.