| Since the reformation of Exchange rate in July 2005, Exchange rate of RMB has been paid close attention. Economists and policy designers have been caring about whether RMB is overvalues globally, and the following discussion and analysis of the article base on it.There are three problems would to be discussed and analyzed in this article, involving many important elements in RMB exchange rate area. The first one is that whether RMB was still underestimated, and how much accurate if it is true? Although many domestic and international experts carried on a great deal of research on it, it still have space to talk about research method and the data which to be used. The second one is that whether exchange rate of RMB imbalance, and what is the degree of misalignment of RMB exchange rate? Analyzing misalignment of exchange rate and investigating the reasons after getting equilibrium on real exchange rate and economic basic situation. It is the extension of the first problem, and it is benefit to current circumstance of our country. The third one is to show the degree of the adjustment of exchange rate impact on our nation's macroeconomics, especially in foreign trade, the research documents are not enough of this import problem in our country, however, the research of the problem provide the basis of fixed amount to turn for the current decision maker. That's the purpose and significant of the article.In order to solve these problems, in the first of the article, the author introduces the concept of Real Effective Exchange Rate and equilibrium exchange rate, giving a comprehensive and reasonable assessment on RMB exchange rate that based on some advances equilibrium exchange rate theory. Next, the author chooses the dependent variable and the independent variable from many variables to gives a new model to analysis the equilibrium and real exchange rate, then estimates the cunent and long-term equilibrium and real exchange rate using the new theory of Cointegration, VEC model and H-P filter based on Elbadawi's developing country model, and analyzes the misalignment of RMB empirically. In this article, the author also puts an inquiry on a minitype simultaneous equation system to simulate the impact of our country's economy dynamically. At last, the author makes suggestions based on the result of analysis to the decision-maker. |
