| Water is becoming one of the most and valuable resources in modern society.Sustainable utilization of water resources is an important basis for the sustainabledevelopment of social-economic system. The efficiency of water utilization inGuangzhou city is very low in the past several decades. Recently, with thedevelopment of economy and the increase of population, water pollution inGuangzhou city is becoming more and more seriously. Water shortage is becoming alimiting factor for the sustainable development.In this thesis, theories of system dynamics and sustainable development wereused to study the sustainable utilization of water resources in Guangzhou city. Mainconclusions based on our research are as follow:1. By using the tool of system dynamic analysis—STELLA software, systemdynamics model for water resources in Guangzhou city was established. The model isbased on analysis of water resources system in Guangzhou city. Comparisons of mainindices between simulated values and actual data indicate that simulated values agreewith the actual data well during 2000-2005, which verify the validity of the model.2. Under current trends, water demands during 2006-2025 in Guangzhou citywere forecasted by the model simulation. Result shows that water demand inGuangzhou city will increase in the future 10 years, and the maximum water demand1.1437×1010 m3 will occur in the year 2018. Factors affecting water demand and watersupply were also simulated. Results showed that recycle ratio of water for industryand irrigation coefficient of agriculture remarkably influences water demand. Modelsimulation results indicate that water consumption of industry will reduce 5×108 m3when recycle ratio of water for industry increase 0.5% per year. Water consumption ofagricultural irrigation will reduce 2×108～3×108 m3 when irrigation coefficient ofagriculture increases 1% per year. The model simulations show that reclaim waterwould increase every year under the trend of increasing treatment rate of sewage inGuangzhou city, and reclaimed water available will reach to 6×108～9×108 m3. Withthe current trend of development and utilization, the carrying capacity of water resources for population will increase slightly during 2006-2025, reaching 16.6million people in 2025. However, the increasing rate will decrease.3. There are many researches on index system for sustainable utilization of waterresources in arid regions. However, few researches concerns about index system in therainy region. We attempt to build an index system for sustainable utilization of waterresources in Guangzhou. The index system can be applied to other rainy regions.Index of sustainability of water resources utilization in Guangzhou city was conductedusing AHP (analytic hierarchy process) approach. Results indicated that index ofwater resources sustainable utilization increased in Guangzhou city during 2000-2005.The index of sustainability in 2005 reached 0.518, which is 36.32% increase ascompared with that in 2000.4. In order to estimate the sustainability of water resources utilization underdifferent political strategies, Scenario analysis was performed, and fivescenarios—strategy of no change, reclaimed water reuse, saving society, waterprotection and harmonization—were assumed. Results show that index of waterresources sustainable utilization under strategy of harmonization is the highest of allthe assumed strategies. Index of water resources sustainable utilization underharmonization strategy will increase to 0.727 in 2025, which is 1.4 times of that in2005. |
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