A Study On Sustainable Utilization Of Soil And Water Resources In Shandong Province Based On System Dynamics Model

The water and soil resources are the most basic conditions that human depend on for existence and development. They are the foundational natural resources and strategic economic resources, so they have the irreplaceable status and function to realize the sustainable development of economy and society. The degeneration and deterioration of the water and soil resources will not only affect the nature operation of the ecological environment, but also endanger the human society and the economic development. Therefore, it is necessary to protect effectively and use the water and soil resources reasonably, and to realize the sustainable use of water and soil resources and the sustainable maintenance of ecological environment.The development history of Shandong Province is long. The water and soil erosion of different extent exit in most regions .It is one of the most serious provinces of water and soil erosion and is also a big population and economical province simultaneously. With high-speed development of economy, several problems are exiting in Shandong Province such as quantity insufficiency of the water and soil resources, serious water pollution, decrease in soil quality, unreasonable allocation and incisive supply and demand contradictory of the water and soil resources and so on. These problems will stand out increasingly along with the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization and will become the important factors that restrict the agricultural production and even the sustainable development of economy and society in Shandong Province. To explore the sustainable use pattern of water and soil resources and to ensure the lasting and age-long use in Shandong Province has the significant strategy and the practical significance to solve the shortage of the water and soil resources and the environmental pollution problems, promote the coordinated development of economy with population, resources and environment, speed up the step of the water and soil erosion prevention, improve the ecological environment, realize the sustainable use of the water and soil resources, maintain good ecological environment and promote the harmony between human and nature.Take Shandong Province as the object of study.The water resource and land resource were regarded as a whole. The sustainable use system of the water and soil resources was analysed from the population, economy, resource and the environment angle, and its constitution and intrinsic organic connections were studied, and the systems dynamics model was utilized creatively to research the water and soil resources sustainable use.The whole system was divided into five sub-systems, such as population sub-system, economy sub-system, water resource sub-system, land resource sub-system and environment sub-system. The causes and effects feedback relations of the interior sub-system and among the various subsystems were analyzed separately, and the flow graphs and the quota relations during various variables in subsystems were constructed, and at last the sustainable use system dynamics model of the water and soil resources was established having synthesized the five subsystems. This paper chose the reasonable decision variables and designed many kinds of the water resource use patterns, land resource use patterns as well as the water and soil resources use patterns separately through regulating the values of different variables. The simulation results under different design patterns were obtained through the simulation. The simulation results of the water resource use patterns, land resource use patterns as well as the water and soil resources use patterns were contrasted and analyzed respectively through selecting reasonable and representative major targets, thus the optimized patterns of the water resource sustainable use, land resource sustainable use as well as the water and soil resources sustainable use were screened respectively.The research results indicate that the patterns that guarantee the water resource sustainable use in Shandong Province are the water highly-saving and low economy type, water moderately-saving and environmental protection type, equilibrium development model of water saving, environmental protection and economy, and water high-saving, environmental protection and modest-speed economy type; The models that ensure the land resource sustainable use are the balanced development model of society and economy with the high farmland, development model with preserving the cultivated land and pleasant ecology, and the economical utilization of land pattern; The types that safeguard the water and soil resources sustainable use in Shandong Province are the water saving and land conservation development model with good ecology, water economy and land saving development pattern with high-speed economy, balanced development of economy and ecology model with water saving and land economy, and the water saving and land conservation development model with high-speed economy. Finally corresponding countermeasures were put forward separately on account of the water resource sustainable use, the land resource sustainable use as well as the water and soil resources sustainable use according to the filtered patterns. The purposes are to realize the sustained use of the water and soil resources and to safeguard sustainable development of economy and society in Shandong Province.