The Region Research Of Financial Distress Warning Model Of Listed Companies

With the development of the Chinese securities business for more than ten years,the people have accepted the trend of investment in securities gradually. Recently,Loss coverage and amount of Chinese listed company is in a rising trend of marketrisk, some even had severe financial crisis and become ST company (ST means "specialtreatment" ), for investors, the potential market risk is large. They are fullconcerned that how to identify the risk of the listed companies. In addition, topredict future trend of listed company's finance and it's finance distress areimportant for supervising team to identify those sightless financing company, forinvesting bank to discover effectively potential customers, for loan bank, suppliersand other related company to adjust custom relations, also for management team incompany to improve self running.Company in distress will show some sign in previous time, which is obvious infinancial data. So how to use accounting data and adopt suitable financial indexand set up math model to make prediction has been an important research . Somedocuments showed many researchers set up financial early warning model based on allcompanies in a country. But, is the same model suitable for different region in acountry? Is the same finance ratio differentiable in different region? These areworth of thinking. So this paper aims at setting up different model in differentregion according to company financial data in different region, which can help tomake effective warning continuously in different region.According to the neglect of region factor of financial distress warning study ,this paper makes thorough analysis on financial warning of different regionstheoretically and practically. We select all companies in special treat of Beijing,Shanghai and Guangdong from 2001 to 2005 as the training sample according to regionfactor and industry sorts. With SPSS13．0 version, the Logistic regression andFisher' s discriminant models of the three regions are established, with theaccuracy of 100%, 100%, 100%, 91．7%, 100%, 87．5%. The result shows that financial distress warning region study has the higher accuracy and it can be the efficienttool of predicting the financial failure.