Research On Forecasting Of Automobile Sales In China

Automobile industry is a pillar industry in national economy, and it's the foundation and guarantee of our county's modernization and urbanization. In recent years, automobile sales of our country increase quickly. The increase rate is more than 20%, and the sale quantity broke 7 200 000 in 2006. Facing the value of great sales, various social capitals flood in the industry. The car productivity rises and a low level products mass in the market, while high quality, high value-additional product supply falls short of demand, resulting huge waste of social resource. Moreover, because of the automobile sales surge, the pressure of petroleum supply, city transportation, and environmental protection etc is becoming aggravated in China. Because the car consumption environment drops behind, it limits the long-term growth of auto sales, and impacts the development of the automobile industry in China.In China, both the government and automobile enterprises care about automobile sales and its product structure in future. The factors that affect automobile sales are analyzed on the basis of the present situation of car market in China, and then pointed out that the main factors are macro economy, product price, consumer hobby and consumption environment etc.The further automobile sales in china are forecast by applying GM(1,1) model., and made a judgment on the development trend of car market. The study shows that the automobile sales will keep a fast growth for several years in future, but will still get behind the car productivity. A solution to this problem is to quicken the economic development and increase automobile sales.Finally, in order to develop automobile industry more healthily, some suggestions are put forward to the problem of over-capacity of car production from three angles respectively of the government, business enterprises and consumes.