Research Into Application Of The Option-Game Theory To Hi-tech Project Investment Decision

The uncertainty, irreversibility and competition of High-tech product can not properly dealt by traditional investment decision methods, which lead to error decisions. According to the characteristics of High-tech product project, how to carry out the investment decisions of High-tech product project with the option-game is discussed in this paper. The unapplied of traditional investment decision methods and the superiority of the option-game, the option characteristics and the game characteristics of High-tech product project are analyzed, also the applicability of the option under the conditions of non-competition and the applicability of the option-game under the conditions of competition are studies in this paper.This dissertation consists of five chapters. In chapter 1, developing studies of the option-game theory and the demonstration in and out of China are described. Then researching structure,method and the innovation are brought forward. The innovation is: the investment decision is discussed under the conditions of non-competition and competition by method of the option-game. The value of delay option under the conditions of non-competition, waiting game under the condition of investing simultaneity, and landing game under the condition of investing in queue are accounted. In chapter 2, the predicament of traditional investment decision methods is discussed, then the principle of these methods and the advantage and disadvantage are analyzed. In chapter 3, firstly, the basic ideal of the option games is presented, and three important content of it: NPV, the option theory and the games theory. Then generalizing analysis frame is concluded. Secondly, on the base of characteristics of High-tech product and affecting factors of investing, the applicability of the option-game in high-tech product investing is revealed from tow sides: option characteristics and the games characteristics of high-tech product. In chapter 4, the decisions of high-tech product investing are studied under the conditions of non-competition and competition. After the theory is presented, the investing models are built under the conditions of non-competition and competition, then exampled the furthest invest value and start spot of investing, at last, sensitivity is analyzed. In chapter 5, the whole paper is summarized, also some problems and further work direction are put forward.By the above five parts, the option and the option-game are applicable to the investment decision of high-tech product project, which can be concluded. A brand-new theory and application framework for the investment decision of high-tech product project are provided by this dissertation, which the traditional investment decision methods can not do. But the research and application of the new method is not mature, deep research on it have to be done in future.