The Research On Decision For Venture Capital Based On Real Options Game Theory

The role of venture capital in promoting high-tech and emerging industries, businessdevelopment is huge, more and more international, particularly domestic concern andattention. Domestic theoretical circles in the1980s, noted that the development of riskinvestment, rapid economic development of China’s emerging economies in technologicalprogress, upgrading the industrial structure, the urgency and importance.Venture capital in China is growing rapidly, and significantly increased the number ofventure capital companies, a huge amount of funds raised, but the view from the stage ofdevelopment, China’s venture capital industry was underdeveloped, investment projects, thesuccess rate is not high, poor performance, The contribution rate of economic growth andoptimization of industrial structure is still very young. The reason, in addition to venturecapital in China started late, the policy and legal environment is not perfect, but there aretheoretical research lag and actual operational experience, lack of, in particular the lack ofeffective evaluation methods and mechanisms for risk investment decisions.In view of this, the main contents of this article is an overview of the development ofventure investment in China: First, from various angles, pointed out that thedecision-making process to the lack of a proven and effective evaluation methods. Article inthe summary and analysis of the premise, in line with the characteristics of China’s riskinvestment decision-making evaluation index system, to build a multi-objective decisionmodel suitable for China’s risk investment With matlab level analysis, spss software werethe main ingredients Analysis. Traditional venture capital decision-making method todecision-making fixed on a point in time, ignoring the risk investment, the value ofmanagerial flexibility and strategic value, the blind decision-making lead to investmentfailure. This paper the introduction of real options theory to the decision-making of venturecapital projects, real options to assess the risk the flexibility of the project value and thevalue of investment opportunities, reduce the risks arising from uncertainties morerealistically reflect the actual value of the investment projects, improved means and methodsof risk assessment of investment decisions. Multi-stage for venture capital investment, thecoexistence of features a variety of uncertainties, clarify the value of risk investmentsinclude a variety of options to build a phased compound real options model and empiricalanalysis, using Monte Carlo simulation method with the help of The excel obtained the value of the compound option. Finally, pointed out the defects of the real options methodbased on the introduction of game theory, risk investment option game, combined with theestablishment of the oligopolistic market conditions to build the risk of investment realoption game model, China’s venture capital often appears.The gambling agreement with theoption game, an empirical study.