Research On Corporation Financial Distress Prediction In The Environment Of Electronic Commerce

In 21st Century, economic globalization and informational network is a trend. Within the global scope, electronic commerce develops fast with the unprecedented speed. Currently, going with the improvement on EC environment, the improvement on application way and the development of EC industry, EC in China develops fast and exerts its advantages further, and certainly it will become a new point of economy growth. Due to the development of EC, it will impact on corporation's organization structure, working mode, and the environment, theory, method of financial management. Therefore, to construct a financial distress prediction model in the environment of EC is significant to corporation's future, investor benefits, creditor benefits and supervision of government department. Our research is exactly to carry on under this background.This dissertation is belonged to the project of social science research in the education department of Fujian province (Project Number: JA06106S). Comparing financial distress prediction models domestically and internationally, we do the research from two aspects: the theoretic aspect and demonstration aspect. In the theoretic aspect, we expatiate how EC impact corporation, corporation financial character in the environment of EC, and the first selection of prediction index. In the demonstration aspect, we select 14 companies in financial distress (it equals *ST) and with 50 companies in non-financial distress (it chooses from the top 500 of informational companies in China) respectively as samples. Then we use financial index data of 2002 to construct a financial distress prediction model in the environment of EC by binary logistic regress. The testing outcome indicates: 92.2% of original grouped cases and 81.25% of new grouped cases are correctly classified. It demonstrates that the model has good prediction ability and the prediction effect is stable. The conclusion demonstrates that the logic function made of return on net asset,accounts receivable turnover and total asset turnover can reflect company financial status and predict financial distress.