Analyze And Design For Medium And Long-term Electric Load Forecasting And Prewarning System

This thesis introduce the basic theory about the Long-term Electric Load Forecasting and PreWarning, then elaborate the system analyzing and system designing in detail. After learning the exited research results in this field, establish a forecasting model system which including several forecasting models and put forward a reasonable forecasting strategy: including pretreating data, selecting history data source, obtaining the optimized model and so on. In the demand-supply monitor and prewarning model, by using the existed index, establish a prewarning index system and standard balance value, through computer processing customer can see these in a simple , bright , direct-viewing way. In the statistical and analysis model, the system provides the multi- angles, multi-level data comparison and analysis function. The system also integrated the fellowing function , including the data input, data derives, data inquiry, data maintenance and safety control.The result of system movement proves that the long-term power load forecast and the early warning system forecast result is quite accurate, and has the stronger adaptiveness and the combination ability.