A Research On The Mixed Two-Stage Evaluation Method Of Personal Credit

With the rapid development of Chinese economy, the scale of various personal consume expands quickly. But, because of the low risk management level over the retail trade from the interior commercial banks, relatively backward management means and methods, lack of an effective personal credit evaluation method, all severely hindered the development of credit business of personal consume. Therefore, it is very important for the development of social economy to develop an evaluation method of personal credit, which is suitable for the Chinese character and can effectively lower the credit risk.The paper uses the three methods that are judge and analysis, logistic return and artificial nerve network, which are often used in banks home and abroad, to handle the collected data and form a mixed two-stage evaluation method of personal credit based on the result from the analysis and comparison of the data, that is to divide the personal credit evaluation model into two stages. At the first stage, such conclusions are made that the imitation and synthesis accuracy of artificial nerve network and the predict stability of logistic return are the best through the analysis and comparison of the results from the separate application of the three methods: judge and analysis, Logistic return and artificial nerve network, which is the basement of mixture model of the two in the second stage. The second stage uses the output based on the Logistic analysis model to predict the result---Rate P, puts Rate P as a new variable into the nerve network with other independent variable and gives directions to the artificial nerve network to optimize nerve network. At last we get a more effective credit evaluation model from the improvement of model of imitation and analysis accuracy and predict stability. This research on the mixed two- stage evaluation method of personal credit can reach the goal, that is to effectively lower the credit risk of commercial banks and realize maximize of the bank profits.