Research On Personal Credit-scoring Methods And Its Application In Banks

Supported by policy of positive credit, the scale of personal consumer credit grows with each passing day in commercial bank of our country. But individual consumer credit violation event common occurs, individual consumer credit risk evolution technique and management capacity of commercial banks urgently to enhance. In this case, the comprehensive, systemic research on individual consumer credit theory, consumer credit risk theory and individual credit evolution can do well in perfecting the credit risk management of the commercial banks, promoting the growth of personal consumer credit and pushing the construction of personal credit system .It has important realistic meaning and theory value.Based on the theory of project management and risk control theory, statistics methods are used to develop personal credit-scoring models in this paper. With these models, commercial banks can control credit risks and further the development of consumer credit. There are many methods of credit-scoring. This paper uses survival analysis tools to build credit-scoring models. Survival analysis can be applied to estimate not only the probability of default or early repayment, but the time to default or early repayment.The paper has six sections. Firstly, this part figures these topics about the background, necessity and significance, thinking and methods for research, writing ideas and content system of the paper. Secondly, this paper looks at some theories about consumer credit and personal credit-scoring, and then outlines the development of techniques applied in credit-scoring models. In the third part of this paper, the methods of survival analysis and Cox model are introduced. The chapter four is about the positive analysis and the application of conclusion. The data of consumer credit borrowers from Wuxi commercial bank are used to build Cox regression models respectively, default and early repayment being the failure event. In the chapter five, the complementary measures are to set up and perfect relevant laws and regulations, perfect the personal credit system, strengthen the relevant technical research of personal credit scoring models. The last part of this paper is about conclusion and prospect. The fruit and innovation of this study are stemmed up. Then, I analysis the inadequate points in this part. Finally, the development prospect of credit-scoring models in the commercial banks of our country is pointed.