Study And Demonstration Of Rural Social Pension Insurance Actuarial System

The development of rural social pension insurance system is an important process to perfect the social security system and protect farmers'rights. It is also an important step to improve the marketing economy and maintain a stable society. However, it finds lots of problems in our country that require innovations. Many scholars have done plenty of researches on the reform of rural pension insurance while at the same time actuarial and mathematical research is inadequate. Therefore this paper put forward an actuarial model of rural social pension insurance, ranging from individual pension balance model to the rural population structure forecast model, then to the insurance ratio estimate model, and applied the long-range actuarial estimation to provide the important technical support for the reform. Meanwhile, the paper implements the proposed model using Java codes and based on the calculation result of Beijing Daxing it provides a series of suggestions for future decision making.The paper contains six chapters. Chapter One, Introduction to the background of the research, outline the purpose of the paper. Chapter Two, Actuarial model of rural social pension insurance, based on the annuity theory and life insurance actuarial method, built a balanced individual pension model which fully considered the factors in rural social pension and lead to more accurate premium and pension parameters. Chapter Three, Rural population forecast model, built up the national life table, calculate the death probability at different age through model life table, forecast fertility rate and migration rate and then calculate the male and female rural population by age. Chapter Four, Rural social pension insurance ratio estimation model. At first, analyze the farmer's desire for the pension by Rough Set theory, construct the attribute reduction algorithm based on the conditional entropy for the computation and analysis of 8,410 questionnaire surveys data to make use of the advantage of rough set to deal with indefinite and incomplete data. And several factors closely related to farmer's desire for the pension are obtained, like age, sex, income, profession and so on. Then considering the macro economy data, the male and female insurance ratio by age can be estimated by the methods like statistics, curve fitting. Chapter Five, Demonstration of rural social pension insurance actuarial calculation on the case of Beijing Daxing, construct the long-range actuarial calculation model, and take the rural pension plan in Beijing Daxing as example to...