An Empirical Study On Carrying Capacity Of Chinese Securities Market

China's security market exists as a'new and shunt'market, whose naissance profits from Open Policy, has proved its distinction ever since the day it's born. The reality of economic reforms and development make it take on the important task---reforms of state-owned enterprises. Over ten years'practice proves that we have over-emphasized their financing capacity, however lose sight of the ability of security market that allocates resource and risk. How much responsibility which economic reforms endue with can security market carry? How could it keep sustained development? These questions have turned out to be more and more crucial.Securities market is outcome of economic development to certain stage, normative market operation and auto-adjust system ensure the adaptability of market carrying capacity and economic environment, which cannot make market carrying problem stand out in mature market. Hence foreign scholars have almost done no specific research on this field. In domestic area, it is a whole new research thought of simulative measurement on rational carrying capacity of securities market depending on ecological carrying capacity and mechanical relative theories and models. There is no literal production on it. The text will adopt the method of qualitative analysis conjoint with quantitative analysis, and make use of modern statistics, econometrics, mechanics, ecology carrying models and relative theories and methods so as to go through sufficient discussion on security market carrying capacity. And in this basis I will make demonstration analysis with authentic data in macro economy and security market.The conclusion shows that:I. Static load that our securities market take on do not exceed the max load volume, but in 2006 the accelerated ascent trend has increased the market pressure and destruction power to the market structure.II. We need to view the high raise of impulse load Pd in 2006 as early-warning signal, andtake measures to minish impulse dynamic load coefficient, increase buffer function of securities market, so that reduce the destructive risk of assets flowing to securities market, which is due to stock index's going up and down.III. As for indetermination of incidental load, we ought to set up market's responding system to incidents, so as to monitor, forewarn and treat right and furthest decrease incidental destruction to securities market, increase its carrying capacity which makes it develop on a healthy and stable way.