Research Of China Real Estate Bubble Estimation Methods

As Chinese mainstay industry in the coming several years, the real estate industry will take a guiding and fundamental role in the whole national economy system. The real estate bubble will bring serious result to economic. The real estate industry Of China have had a rapid development since 1998's recovery, but still remain some questions, such as the rapid growth of real estate price and investment, the unreasonable structural . All these make a guess: does real estate bubble occur?With a relatively short history of development of real estate market, we still haven't any case to give a complete theoretical research for the bubble of real estate, the method of estimating the bubble is more rare, which failures to satisfy people's needs of research.On abroad, the paper analyzes the rational model of the estimating of real estate bubble, deeply demonstrates three category estimating methods, constructs a panel model to estimate the bubble of all districts in China, and estimates Shanghai's real estate bubble by cointegration and ECM model. Firstly, with scientific knowledge of the real estate bubble's implication, the paper does deep research into the real estate bubble's generation mechanism. We realize that the real estate properties and real estate market are the basis factors to the generation of bubble, the speculation and herd behavior by the expectation and the too much involution of finance are the direct factors to the formation of bubble. The taxation institution of real estate and the land trade institution of land are the deeply factors to real estate bubble; the fundamental factor is the interest mechanism. Secondly, under the partial equilibrium and rational expectation, we get the rational model of real estate bubble estimation, then we detailed analyze the three methods of estimating real estate bubble: statistical testing law, theoretical price law and the law of indicators instructions and their applicability in China. In law of indicators instructions, the author detailed demonstrate price-to-income indicator, and establish a model with price and...