Study On Predicting Of Construction Land Demand In The Overall Land Use Planning At County Level

The previous turn of overall land use planning has played the prodigious role in the land utilization and management, since it was put into effect. However, there are still many problems in the implementary process; one is the predicting of construction land demand which does not conform to the reality of socioeconomic development. The new turn revision of overall land use planning is being carried on; in order to provide the foundation to make the overall land use planning scientifically, the research on predicting of construction land demand should be in urgent in the new era background.There are so many influential factors of construction land, including society, economy, environment, and policies and so on; the variety of construction land and the relations between construction land and each influential factor are dynamic as well, so in reality, study on predicting of construction land demand should synthesize the influences of each factor and reflect the dynamic varieties.This article preliminarily chooses the influential factors according to certain principles from the reality of planning revision at county level; on the foundation of the selection, then applies correlation analysis to filter the important factors. According to the filtrated factors, this thesis adopts multiple-factor regression analysis to construct the multiple-linear regression dynamic model of construction land demand predicting, and through the backward filtering strategy and auto-regression method to put up the model optimized and revised respectively, in order to make the model set up more scientifically and the predicting precision be higher. Regarding the correlation influential factors, this article mainly utilizes grey system analysis or curve estimate to establish GM (1,1) model or curve model, and carries on dynamic predicting of the factors changes; then synthetically make the predicting results of the influential factors linked to other common forecasting methods. This article also chooses the SPSS statistics software and the DPS statistics software to apply for the data statistical analysis and modeling of this research.This article takes the revision pilot practice of the new turn of overall land use planning of Liling city in Hunan Province as before. Based on the selected ten years' socioeconomic statistical data and construction land data from 1995 to 2004 linked to the reality of Liling city, this article has analyzed GDP, fixed asset investment, total population, and non-agricultural population proportion are the main factors to affect...