The Research Of Farmers' Production Decision Method Based On Game Theory

The method of agriculture production plan decision is put forward in order to adapt to the transition of Chinese agriculture policy and the reform of agriculture production manage style. It is critically significant to conduct the agriculture production scientifically and keep the agriculture developing steadily. According to recent research on agriculture production decision, the method of Game Theory is adopted in this article to analyze quantitatively the course of farmers'individual decision and united decision, co-operation difficult position model, evolution game model among the co-operation organizations and game model between the nation and the farmers. Combining with recent problems of agriculture production, to analyze the problems in the course of production decision, and make feasible plans one by one. The main research work is as follows:1. To analyze and contrast the two decision types, the individual decision and united decision, which are adopted in recent agriculture production decision by means of Game Theory. Set up game model of farmers'individual decision and united decision through the analysis and solution of the model, draw a conclusion that the united decision method is more efficient than the individual decision, so as to supply a support to the selection of the decision.2. The members of the co-operation organization have two selections, one is obeying the agreement of the co-operation organization, the other is breaking away from agreement. Through analysis, set up the difficult state game model of the co-operation. Explain the results of different selections. Analyze the necessity of breaking away from the agreement. Draw the conclusion that it is inevitable that the agreement won't be obeyed if co-operation organization production method can improve the production efficiency greatly, some punishment plans have been made to keep the method developing steadily by means of the deep analysis and research to the difficult state game model of co-operation organizations developing steadily.3. After systematically analyzing the change effects of agriculture policy to the Chinese agriculture production in recent years, set up a game strategy set and utility function between the nation and the farmers, and also a game model between the nation and the farmers. Draw a conclusion that the farmers should increase agriculture production according to the policy that the nation supports agriculture financially. Supply a theory explanation to the performing of the agriculture policy. At the same time, supply different plans for the farmers according to the different policies.The author makes a thorough quantizing research for the agriculture problem by means of Game Theory. The co-operation difficult state model and the method of breaking away from difficult position are special, which have reference to some relative areas.The author adopts Game Theory to the research and practice of agriculture production decision. It is instructive in theory and valuable in practice to the agriculture policy making, farmers'income increasing, and agriculture production developing. The research method may spread to the research of relative areas.