Study On Forecast Of Constructive Land Control

Land resource is the restricted factor of construction and development in town ,and is the carrier of all kinds of production and living.It has important meaning for sustainable development to do well the constructive land forecast for protecting infield and control engross of constructive land to farming.This paper's constructive land forecast is based on land planning and Stat forecast.On the basic of analyse of constructive land actuality and the change mechanism in Toksun County ,apply four kind of forecast models to analyse the result.Choose GM(1,1) model and regression model according with the constructive land actuality and the change mechanism in Toksun County.And combine the"十一五"planning of government and the arrangement of emphases industry item to forecast the demand of constructive land and change current of land use structure in planning period (2010 and 2020).It adopt reasoning means of acceptability,according to constructive land scale ,considering economy rationality,advancement and applicability of technic feasibility of constructive condition and sustainability of zoology environment,to analyse the feasibility of constructive land scale.At the last , put forward advice of the constructive land supply.The research have shown that,the forecast method which is based on that GM(1,1) model is main,regression model is assistant,and use correlation information to modify. The acceptability analyse of constructive land scale in 2010 is that:the acceptability of ecnomy benefit is 0.664, the acceptability of society and environment benefit is 0.825,and integrative acceptability is 0.74, They all accord with judge standard.The merit that use integrative forecast is that considering the unit otherness that every county's demand of constructive land for social and economic development.It have strong realistic and instuctional meaning,and have referenced meaning to other county for land use collectivity planning modify.