Study On The Financial Distress Early-Warning System Of The Chinese Manufacturing Listed Company

The listed company is the foundation of Chinese securities market, and its quality is closely related with the stability and development of the market. But, due to bad management and other reasons, financial distress has already occurred in many listed companies, especially in manufacturing companies. These companies cannot work normally, some of which almost go into bankruptcy. In order to forecast the probability and seriousness of a company's financial distress and take corresponding measures to avoid losses, it is necessary to establish an efficient financial distress early-warning system (FDES). At the same time, it is also a problem valued by Chinese scholars.On the basis of previous study achievements, this thesis takes the manufacturing listed companies as the sample and establishes a FDES of this kind of companies with statistical methods. We hope that this FDES is a useful tool for the related forecasting and decision, and this thesis is benefit to similar studies in our country. The main contents of this thesis are following:Chapter 1: Summarization of Chinese Manufacturing Listed Company's FDES. This chapter introduces the study background of the thesis, defines the financial distress, and elaborates the concept, function and significance of FDES. Simultaneously, it summarizes and evaluates study situation of foreign countries and our country. Finally, the chapter introduces the major thinking of this thesis.Chapter 2: the Theoretic Bases of Establishing FDES. In order to offer the foundation to the thesis's study, this chapter mainly elaborates two kinds of theories that can direct the establishment of FDES: (1) the normative theories explaining failure or bankruptcy ofenterprises, including the Theory of Enterprises' Existence Factors, the Trade-off Theory and the Cash Flow Theory;(2) the Economy Early-warning Theory.Chapter 3: the Establishment of Chinese Manufacturing listed Company's FDES.As the major part of the thesis, this chapter describes in detail the process of establishing the FDES: Sampling, selecting forecasting variables, constructing early-warning models and dividing early-warning intervals.Chapter 4: Conclusions and Suggestions. This chapter is the end of the thesis. At first, it generalizes this thesis's major study achievements and draws some conclusions. Then it analyzes in detail the faults of the FDES and makes corresponding suggestions.