General Contractor-Oriented Risk Analysis Of EPC Project In Hydropower Engineering

At present, EPC general contract mode is common in hydropower engineering. Compared with traditional contract mode in which the design, equipment procurement and construction is separate, the barriers is broken among the above three, the better connections and coordination are achieved in multi-process. Therefore, EPC general contract mode is very popular in hydropower engineering contract market. However, it is a great challenge for EPC contractor to take the all or most risks with the fixed price. Because of many uncertain factors in EPC general contract project in hydropower engineering, the management and control of is extremely complex. Therefore, it is significant for general contractor to definite risks and takes appropriate precaution that identifying EPC general contract risks systematically, quantifying risk and analyzing the impact of various risks on project management and cost-control. A certain hydropower project of Yunnan Province is taken as a case. According to EPC project characteristics, EPC risks is analyzed by using system analysis method, comprehensive evaluation theory, computer simulation technology. The main contents and achievements are as follows:(1) The risk index system is established and risk assessment method based on entropy weight is developed in the paper. By using both qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, relative importance of risks in this index system are measured, the main risks are identified. Through a case study, main risks of EPC hydropower project are confirmed, and countermeasures are discussed, the scientific basis for risk prevention and management of general contractor project is provided.(2) The method to analysis cost risk during construction period is presented. Firstly, the risks that can make cost change of EPC hydropower project are analyzed. Construction cost Estimation Model of EPC project are established considering synthetically price rising, natural risk, construction technology and interest rate change. Secondly, construction cost change is analyzed by Monte-Carlo simulation. Through a case study, cost increase caused by various risks is quantified. And price rising is uppermost risk of causing cost increase in EPC hydropower project. The above research not only offers reference for cost control and prevention of cost overrun, but also provides the basis for determination of risk premium in EPC contract.