A Research On The International Comparability Of China's Unemployment Statistics

Unemployment is a difficult problem in our country for a long time, directly related to the social stability and economic development. All along, urban registered unemployment rate is only released in China. This data is difficult to reflect the current situation of China's unemployment and can not make international comparisons. This paper makes a systematic research on the international comparability of China's unemployment statistics, analyzes the similarities and differences between international norms and China's unemployment statistics, and provides guiding significance for improving our unemployment statistics and the international comparability of unemployment statistics.This article integrates the methods and data to study the international comparability of China's unemployment statistics. Firstly, we expound in detail the international norms about the unemployment statistics, introduce the United States'unemployment statistics, and provide evidence for international comparison of China's unemployment statistics. Secondly, comparing the China's unemployment statistics with international norms and the United States'unemployment statistics, we find our definitions of unemployment and labor force survey accord with international comparable requirements, however, in many details, there are still large differences from international norms, such as a single indicators system, little data dissemination frequency and so on. Thirdly, we make an empirical research on statistical methods and the unemployment rate of the United States and China. Through analyzing the availability of significant differences between the United States and China's unemployment statistics with statistical methods, we realize that China's registered unemployment statistics have significant differences from the United States'CPS and China'labor force survey, while there are no significant differences between the United States'CPS and China'labor force survey. Then, we use traditional time-series factor analysis method to analyze the data characteristics of the unemployment rate, long-term trends, and use interval prediction to compare with the reliability of the United States and China's unemployment rate, the results show that: China's registered unemployment rate and investigated unemployment rate are positively correlated with time, while the United States'unemployment rate is negatively correlated with time; from 2004 to 2007, the reliability of unemployment rate in China is less than in the United States. Finally, according to theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, some suggestion is given to improve the international comparability of China's unemployment statistics.The innovative points of this paper include: we make a deep analysis of the differences between international norms and China's unemployment statistics, and compare the United States'CPS to China'labor force survey; integrating the methods and data, we make an empirical research on statistical methods and unemployment rate; we analyze the reliability of unemployment rate in the United States and China.