The Influence Factors Of China's Trade Flows To Its Primary Trade Partners

Due to the reform and open to the outside world and joined the WTO,China's total value of export and import have increased continually from 26 billion dollars in 1978 to some 2207 billion dollars in 2009.And China's export has shared the first place of the world in 2009.And China's foreign trade has contributed a lot to the growth of GDP,even in 2009,the ratio of dependence on foreign trade is as high as 44.28%.But we can also find that owing to many influence factors such as finance crisis of American and decrease of the primary economies'GDP in 2009, China's totall value of foreign trade in 2009 is 356 billion dollars less than that in 2008.And China's export decrease some 229 billion dollars which has rarely been seen. So it is crucial moment to make an overall evalution on the influence factors and find that how to maintain and promote the trade between China and its primary partners.The first part of this thesis comprises the background and sense of this thesis,and the research metheds also the innovation of thesis etc.In the second part of the thesis,it undergires Gravity mode through mathmatitrics throry and sums up theoretics of related factors'influence over international trade flows,and makes a constructive summary on related reseaches abroad and in China.In the third and fourth part,it makes descriptive statistics base on previous data and present situation of the trade flow's influence factors and China's trade flows to the world and to its primary trade partners.In the fifth part,it is the empirical study,and in this part there are 7 gravity models been set up according to two samples which comprise China's export to its most primary 25 international trade partners etc penal data during 1997-2008 and 2003-2008.The 6 models base on 1997-2008 data which comprises 293 samples show that severel factors have vary exent effects on China export's country distribution.The seventh model base on 2003-2008 data which comprises 144 samples shows that the influence of exchange rate to China's export to its primary trade partners is of significance,and the exchange rate comprises the fluctuate extent and the change of average exchange rate of RMB with trade partner's currency.And then I bring forword estimate methods about China's yearly export potential to its vary partners on current US doller and on constant US doller. Besides,this thesis discussed that the change of two countries'trade distance impacted export potential.