Empirical Research Of Financial Early-warning Model Introduced Non-financial Indicators

With market competition becoming fierce recently, enterprises face lots of risks in the process of survival and development. If the risks can not be controlled properly, they can lead to financial crisises and even to bankruptcies. The eruption of financial crisis in 2008 made a big shock to our country's capital market and real economy. Based on this background, Company Secretary of the Ministry of Finance issued "Financial Crisis on the Financial Operation of Enterprises and Enlightenment".The paper points out that financial early-warning mechanism is to distinguish enterprises in different industries and different sizes. In terms of the financial risk index system of enterprises actual financial performance data is calculated. And we can early-warn to certain aspect of the enterprises, so the enterprises can take respond measures. On April 9,2009, the Ministry of Finance indicated document 52 in the financial enterprises (2009), and pointed out again that enterprises should "pay attention to the role of corporate financial information, early-warning, strengthening the financial risk monitoring and early-warning " Based on the background and the important role of financial early-warning in enterprise development, this paper chooses financial early-warning to study.This paper takes manufacturing enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares for example and studies the financial early-warning model of non-financial indicators in order to explore the best predictive model of the financial early-warning for manufacturing enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares. This paper takes 27 ST manufacturing enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares and the matching enterprises in 2007 as the research object. First of all, select 9 financial indicators and 31 non-financial indicators, and use significance tests and factor analysis to screen twice. Finally I get 18 financial indicators and 2 non-financial indicators in the ST and non-ST companies. And they are significantly different and not related. And then I use SPSS17.0 Statistical software to explore the financial early-warning model based on purely financial indicators and introduction of non-financial indicators respectively. Finally, I use two early-warning models to do the accuracy test to verify whether the forecast result of the early-warning model of non-financial indicators is better than the forecast result of the early-warning model of financial indicators. All the processes are described as follows.(1)Seen from the result of significance of sample data, there are significant differences between ST companies and non-ST companies in the financial indicators, and fee rate and the audit opinion are more significant in the non-financial indicators.(2)After the introduction of non-financial indicators, financial early-warning model improves the goodness of fit, observed and predicted values fit better.(3)After the introduction of non-financial indicators, the significant level of the independent variables improves, since the impact of the dependent variable is more significant to independent variables.(4)After the introduction of non-financial indicators, the overall prediction accuracy of financial early-warning model increases from 79.6% to 85.2%, the prediction accuracy has been greatly improved.Overall, after the introduction of non-financial indicators, financial early-warning model improves the goodness of fit, and the impact of the dependent variable is more significant to independent variables, and the early-warning effect of the model is improved greatly. Therefore, making decisions according to effective financial reports, investors, creditors and other stakeholders should consider the comprehensive effect of the financial factors and non-financial factors in order to make the decision more accurate and reliable.