Research On The Fluctuations Of Oil Futures Prices

Oil is not only a kind of typical strategic materials, but also a kind of non-renewable scarce resource. Oil is an important part of the economic development of all countries in the modern economy world. It is different from general merchandise in this society, which is very important. With the rapid development of industry, energy shortage has become the world's problem, which gets more attention from other countries. In a word, oil is not the general goods, and it plays a very important role in the economic and the military world. But the imports of the oil is far exceeded the exports, our oil consumption relys on the imports largely, so we could say noting about the price but only to accept the price, which plays a negative role in the China's oil security. Therefore, it has the theoretical and the practical significance in dealing with the oil crisis and the oil security in the economic society.Based on the oil futures price fluctuations analysis, we try to find out the characteristics of the oil futures price fluctuations, and analysis the oil futures price fluctuations and foreign oil futures price relations and the differences, to provide valuable information for China's oil market regulator, then we take a subjective attitude to the development of the oil futures market, in order to make the best use of discovery function of the oil futures price to avoid the risk of the oil.I devided this paper into six parts for six chapters:The first chapter is going to talk about the general idea of the paper, the fluctuations of the oil future price and the significance of the research objectives, content and methods to in the paper to research. The second chapter is the introduction of relevant study about the oil price, analysis and research relevant paper, and find useful information in this article, clearly the price of oil futures on the specific direction research. The third chapter is part of theⅢ theoretical basis of this article. First, the theoretical basis of this paper is based on the theory of futures market, futures prices above theory, the introduction of these theories help us grasp of the content and ideas. Then we review the wave theory and the model, which is the basic part of this paper in the research. The fourth chapter is the theoretical futures price fluctuations, first we analyze the status of the oil futures market, and the price structure of oil futures and oil futures markets function, and then analyze the oil futures market prices and futures prices of other similarities and differences. Chapter five describes the oil futures today, and then we take Shanghai, New York and London oil futures prices for example, we conclude the fluctuations of oil futures prices. First, we try to analysis the fluctuations in the graph, and then we the use of oil futures price fluctuations characteristics, major basic statistical analysis of the yield curve indicator, the last we use the GARCH model to analyze the rate of return fluctuations clustering, and clustering features of this comparative analysis.We can conclude these ideas as follows:first, New York, London and Shanghai of oil futures price fluctuations peak is meditation, thick tail characteristics, explain this volatility also presents the gathering. Second, New York and London futures price fluctuations persistent stronger, showed a very strong fluctuations sustainability. Third, Shanghai fuel oil futures market volatility is less than that of New York and London oil futures market fluctuations. There are many reasons for this phenomenon. first, market supply and demand in the oil future market plays very important role., the supply and the demand strikes highly in the crude oil futures prices market In New York and London. Second, seasonal factors counts, which is affected by heating the regional differences influence facilities. Third, the effectiveness of futures markets is also affect the fluctuations. In Europe, the oil futures market exists comparatively perfect financial futures market, which has good flexibility,so they can predict the price of the oil.But China's futures market is not a perfect futures market, which can not fully exert the function of futures market.In order to meet the risks of oil price fluctuations, our government should develop and perfect our country's oil futures market, this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions are as follows:First, in order to perfect our country's oil market, oil future market is oil market foundation, to develop the oil market helps the perfection of the oil future market.Second, we should strengthen risk supervision of oil futures trading, and further improve the futures exchange regulations.Third, we should rich oil futures market trading products, the development of diversified oil futures product can perform the supply and demand in the oil market, which is helpful to the oil futures market to prevent the oil price risk.Forth, we should establish and perfect the relevant laws and regulations, and strengthen the over-indulgence oil production, circulation, pricing and oil safety regulation, coordinate contradictions of the process above, which helps develop the oil futures market.