The Research Of RMB Equilibrium Exchange Rate

Exchange rate is one foreign economic country 's core content, it to a country's foreign trade and capital flows all have very important influence. With the development of our national economy, the RMB exchange rate has increasingly become the focus of international society. Since the us since the subprime crisis, the rate of accumulative total to rise sharply, however, led by the United States western developed countries still to our pressure on the yuan appreciation to continue. Exchange between China and the problem has become very important and sensitive issues.Equilibrium exchange rate is the core content of the exchange rate theories, it can give currency valuation height or not to provide a standard of judgment. Therefore, the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB research can judge the current valuations of RMB exchange rate, it is of great theoretical and realistic significance.This paper firstly introduces the development of the theory of equilibrium exchange rate, reviewed the research results of the equilibrium exchange rate, then take the empirical research method, the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB made empirical research. Combining with the reality of our country economic conditions, using her model and ERER model as the basis to construct the RMB equilibrium exchange rate empirical model, this paper selects the economic variables are government spending, terms of trade, openness, actual money supply. The empirical results show that its equilibrium exchange rate of RMB exchange rate, appear multiple times disorders in 2005 after the formation mechanism of exchange rate reform, disorders extent declines gradually, the model shows that our current RMB exchange rate is still has certain was moderately underestimated is not big.Reasonable formation mechanism of exchange rate can make exchange-rate back near equilibrium level, so the paper discusses how to further improve the RMB exchange rate mechanism for the formation of some Suggestions: yuan reform process should adhere to the initiative, controllability and progressive, Should be appropriately reduced the weight of each dollar in a basket of currencies, Gradually reduce government regulation, Constantly perfect foreign exchange market, Timely push the yuan convertible, Try to RMB exchange rate index, Constantly enhance the flexibility of the exchange rate.