Research On Relationship Between Credit Change Ratio And Macroeconomic

Since China's reform and opening, the national economy has been keeping the rapid development. And what's more, China gradually becomes the world's largest economic country. With the development of national economy, China has gradually changed the comprehension of the consumption. The consumption policy has transformed from"heavy accumulation, light consumption"to"expanding domestic demand, stimulating consumption". The contribution of consumption to the national economy has been gradually increased. However, the growth rate of personal income consumers is slower than the national economy. So, consumers have to rely on consumption credit to satisfy their consumption desires, which caused the rapid development of consumption credit. However, the rapid development of consumption credit is a double-edged sword. On one hand, the increase of consumption credit can stimulate the economic growth. But on the other hand, it also brings the credit risk to some extent. The size of the consumption credit does not intuitively reflect the severity of credit risk. So we introduced the concept of ratio of credit-change. The ratio of credit-change is a ratio of personal credit balance and personal disposable income. Consumer balance can be considered as the liabilities of financial institutions. Then the ratio of credit change reflects the consumer's debt capacity. Therefore, the ratio can intuitively reflect the extent of credit risk which caused by the change of personal credit balance .In addition, the U.S. scholars concluded that the ratio of credit-change is ahead of business cycle changes. Therefore, analyzing the relationship of ratio of credit-change and macroeconomic activities has an important significance to the economic development.This paper consists of five sections:The first chapter is introduction. The chapter presents the research background and the research significance. In addition, in this chapter we show the value of the research by means of the relative literature which is about the ratio of credit-change. And what's more, in this chapter we have a brief description of the purpose of this research and the structure of this study arrangement, so as to make readers grasp the whole context of the paper.The second chapter is about the relevant theory, which is the basis of the research. This chapter introduces the modern business cycle theory and prosperity cycle approach. Then, it introduces the theory of consumption and income. Finally, we introduce the empirical research used the model theory.The third chapter is the theoretical analysis. Firstly, this chapter introduces the concept of ratio of credit-change. Then by analyzing the influence of consumer credit balances and personal disposable income on the ratio of credit-change, and the influence of ratio of credit-change on macroeconomics, we illustrate the relationship of macroeconomics and the ratio of credit-change.The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis. This chapter briefly describes the selection and the source of data. Then we conclude that there exists a negative relationship between the ratio of credit-change and macroeconomics through the process and analysis of data. Then, through lag correlation analysis and VAR models to analyze the data of the ratio of credit-change and GDP from 1997 to 2009, we obtain that the ratio of credit-change is ahead of the business cycle and the time.In the last conclusion, by the analysis of theory and empirical research, we obtain three conclusions as follows: First, there exists a negative relationship between the ratio of credit-change and the macroeconomic business circles. Second, the ratio of credit-change is ahead of business circles. Third, the ratio of credit-change can reflect the degree of credit risk.Inadequacies of this article are the lack of relevant data, which results in low accuracy of empirical analysis and cause the deviation between the result and the actual situation to some extent.