Evolutionary Game And Chaos Control Of Power Market Based On Heterogeneous Behavioral Decision-makings

The market has gradually established the power market operation rules and government regulatory system along with the further reform of electricity system. However, the research on the dynamic evolution of the power market based on heterogeneous behavioral decision-makings is much more urgent and necessary for the imperfect power market. Based on the summarize of the research results on dynamic evolution and chaos control of the power market, this paper would establish the power market evolutionary game model, which considers the transmission network constraints and is based on the heterogeneous behavioral decision-makings of two-dimensional discrete dynamic systems. This paper has analyzed the equilibrium and cycle of the power market as well as the evolution mechanism of its chaotic state. For the market is under the state of periodic or chaotic, the paper put up the feedback control method to realize the control of the power market from a cycle or chaotic state to a Nash equilibrium state, and improving generators own competitive advantage and system stability. So the market efficiency is improved.In order to accurately simulate the dynamic behavioral decision-making of electricity suppliers'quotation and considering the constraints of transmission network, this thesis will propose the power market model based on the heterogeneous behavioral decision-makings of two-dimensional discrete dynamic systems, which considers the transmission network constraints and is embedded in the mathematical optimization problem characterized by differential dynamic system. The model has two advantages:The first one is that: generators considered two behavioral decision-making types: the bounded rationality behavioral decision-making and the best-reply behavioral decision-making. Each generator probability of behavioral decision-making is depending on the profits of generator themselves and average profit of all generation companies comparison, which determines the increase and decrease in proportion of the one generator behavior in all the generators decision-making behavior. The proportion is the selection probability of the behavior of power suppliers.And the last one is that the market will establish clearing optimization model. A unified market-clearing process of independent system dispatcher by ISO could help market transactions satisfy the demand of physical inherent constraints in the transmission network.This paper analyzes not only the dynamic evolution of power market based on heterogeneous behavioral decision-makings, but also the Nash equilibrium and its stability. This shows that the market parameters influence the stability of market, in the different parameters of the market. The paper adopts the average profit as economic evaluation indicators, and analyses dynamic evolution of the power market based on heterogeneous behavioral decision-makings in the Nash Equilibrium, and the dynamics of the economic performance of the economy in the cycle and chaos. When the market is in Nash equilibrium the economic performance is the best.The time-delayed feedback control is proposed. The current and previous bidding behavior of the difference between decision-making is selected as a feedback control signal, and the control of the market chaos has been achieved by adjust the system state approach. The system bidding decision-making output signal of dynamic model is delayed and set back to the chaotic system as the control signal. When the behavior of dynamic evolution in the market reached chaotic, the control of the periodic and chaotic behaviors of the market is achieved by adjusting the size of the behavioral decision feedback control signal, and the economic profit, the cycle and the chaotic state and the behavior of the uncertainty of the decision-making will reach the original equilibrium state. In that case, the overall economic benefits are improved.The dynamic evolution and chaos control of three-node and fourteen-node model are achieved by the program of MATLAB. So the validity and feasibility of this proposed model and algorithm are testified by calculated results.