The Research On The Supply-Demand Situation And Developing Trend Of Coal Industry In China

Energy is the basic of the national economic growth,social progress and human survival.Our country's energy resource includes coal, oil, gas, hydropower, nuclear power,wind power and so on and the proportions of coal in China total energy production and consumption are above 2/3, so the coal is our country's primary energy, and plays an important material basis role in China national economic development and social progress. At the same time, the coal also affects and has an interaction on our living environment. However,the coal industry faces many problems and challenges and the imbalance contradiction in coal's supply-demand is a main problem. Because of lacking of proper rational and reasonable planning,the problem of imbalance contradiction in coal's supply-demand is more and more obvious with the development of our country's national economic, social development and the Optimization of environment.Based on the qualitative analysis of supply and demand of Chinese coal industry in the current situation,this paper uses quantitative methods to predict supply-demand in China coal industry in the future of the short,medium and long-term,and proposes countermeasures and suggestions to optimize the future trend of China's coal supply and demand.First of all, it analyses the situation of supply-demand in China's coal industry.The supply situation includes supply pattern,trend of future supply and factors affecting the supply in China's coal industry.The demand situation includes the trend of coal consumption and the composition of the market demand for coal. At the same time it also comes the situation of supply exceeding demand in China's coal industry. Secondly, it uses trend extrapolation predicts the short supply in China's coal industry,and reaches the conclusion that China's coal supply in 2009,2010,2011 is 30.015 million tons,32.331 million tons,34.647 million tons.Then it utilizes linear regression model,random time series linear model,winter linear and seasonal exponential smoothing for forecasting the output of coal of our country's state-owned key coal mines,local state-owned coal mines and township coal mines in 2015 and 2020.At last it reaches the conclusion that China's coal industry supply is 35.736 million tons in 2015 and 42.668 million tons in 2020.Thirdly it uses trend extrapolation predicts the short demand in China's coal industry,and reaches the conclusion that China's coal demand in 2009,2010,2011 is 29.710 million tons,31.800 million tons,33.890 million tons.Then it utilizes multiple linear regression model for forecasting China's coal demand,and it comes that China coal industry demand is 34.201 million tons in 2015 and 40.023 million tons in 2020.Finally it quantitativly analyzes the future supply-demand situation of China coal industry,according to the predicted results in PartⅢand PartⅣ.Then it qualitatively analyzes the future supply-demand situation of China's coal industry and comes to the trend of oversupply in China coal industry in the future.At last it proposes some suggestions on solving the trend of oversupply in the future development of China coal industry.