Decomposition Of Driving Effects For Industrial Water Utilization Change And Spatial-temporal Difference Analysis In Liaoning Province

Content: The factor decomposition model has been widely used in the energy, economy and environment sciences, Water shortage, especially in Liaoning province, has become the bottle-neck factor for the regeneration and sustainable development of major old industry foundation in China. The factor decomposition model was constructed in this paper to measure the economy growth effect, industrial construction effect and water utilization intensity effect of driving mechanism for water utilization change in Liaoning province from 1995 to 2007, and the temporal difference of these effects was analyzed. The factor decomposition model was also applied to measure the three kinds of effect of fourteen cities in Liaoning province from 1995 to 2007, and combined the ISODATA cluster model to cluster the effect in space, and the spatial difference of effects was carried out. The results showed that:①economy growth increased water utilization, whose average effect from 1995 to 2007 was 13.86×108m3/a; and water utilization intensity and industrial construction decreased water utilization, whose average effect from 1995 to 2007 were -11.66×108 m3/a and -2.19×108 m3/a respectively in the same phase. In different period, the various effects were different;②the average contribution ratio of economy growth was 371.49% from 1995 to 2007, and the ones of water utilization intensity and industrial construction were -231.32 and -40.15%, so the economy growth and water utilization intensity were the determined factors for water utilization change, and the effect of industrial construction should not be neglected;③the fluctuation degree of economy growth effect was least, which has a stable function on water utilization change, the fluctuation degree of industrial construction was most, which has a impact function on water utilization change, and the fluctuation degree of water intensity was middle, which was the impetus factor for water utilization change tendency;④the spatial difference of various effects reflected such a phenomenon that the effect function has a consanguineous relationship with the economy development level, industrial foundation and resources conditions, so the implement of"zero increase"and"negative increase"goal should be in the continuous development of national economy, and the water shortage problem also should be solved in the continuous development of national economy. The increase quantity index was obtained by applying project pursuit model, and the increase quantity conditions were assessed. At last, the difference tendency was discussed by using Gini coefficient. The results evidence that the industrial increase index comprehensively consider the relations among the four factors mentioned above, and the assessment result fit the actual conditions of industrial water utilization in Liaoning Province. The results of this paper have significance for exactly understanding the relation of water utilization and economy development, and also has a certain reference significance for the regulation of industry policy and sustainable development.