A Semiparametric Analysis Of The Impacting Factors Of The Industrial Emissions Reduction In China

Along with the economic development in China, the contradictions between economic development and the environment protection is becoming increasingly acute. Further improving pollution reduction is urgently needed to ensure sound and rapid economic growth. Under this situation, studying how to reduce emissions effectively is an important duty of government as well as a responsibility of all scholars in relevant field. Therefore, in-depth study of the impact factors of effective emissions reduction, evaluating the importance of all these factors, and exploring ways to reduce pollution more effectively is not only related to improving the nature environment, but also having a positive impact in achieving sustainable development and on the overall strategy of building harmonious society.This paper analyzes the industrial emissions reduction based on the distribution of the urban industrial wastewater discharges. The first chapter is mainly an overview of relevant works in this field at home and abroad. The second chapter is the theory of Nonparametric Kernel Density Estimation and the main idea of the Counterfactual Analysis. Next, using the nonparametric model, this paper estimates the industrial wastewater discharge distribution of Chinese urban cities in 2005 and 2008. Besides, all of the 252 prefecture-level cities are classified by the gross industrial output value to three categories and the industrial wastewater discharge distribution of them is estimated for each category respectively. According to the analysis, the average level of the division of the city's industrial wastewater discharge amount by the city's gross industrial output value of the first category has dropped from 1.72 kg/Yuan to 0.834 kg/Yuan during 2005 and 2008. Under the analysis of each category, the industrial wastewater discharge level of the first category with cities whose gross industrial output values are less than 40 billion has decreased a lot, but it is still the highest value comparing to the other two categories. The wastewater discharge amount of the cities with their gross industrial output values between 40 billion and 100 billion have occupied the largest amount of the total. As the average discharge level of this category is higher than the average level of the whole country, it is necessary to enforce urban industrial wastewater discharge management. And the industrial wastewater discharge level of the third category with cities whose gross industrial output values are exceeding 100 billion is always the lowest. Therefore, the government should pay more attention to enhance industrial wastewater discharge management in those cities belong to the first and the second categories, and continue adopting the pollution reduction policy in the third category. After that, this paper analyzes the effects to the distributional changes of industry development, economic structure attributes, pollution control cost and economic returns from economic development attributes respectively. This paper investigates the impact of these different factors and calculates the contribution of each one. The results are as follows: industrial development has a certain degree of positive impact to industrial wastewater discharge reduction, and its contribution rate is 24.4 percent; the economic structure has tiny positive affect and the contribution rate of which is only 0.3 percent; pollution control cost whose contribution rate is 9.5 percent also has a certain positive impact to industrial wastewater discharge reduction; the economic returns have a major impact on the change of the industrial emissions distribution, their contribution have reached to 61.3 percent. This paper makes detailed analysis on the impact of the economic returns and finds that the lower the city discharges the better they can explain. Overall, the changing tendency of industrial emissions distribution can be explained well by the semi-parametric model applied, the degree of explanation has reached to 95.5 percent. Finally, this paper makes a summary of the situations of the industrial wastewater reduction in China, besides, the final part offers some relevant policies should be carried out. The author hopes that this paper can provide useful references for reducing the industrial pollutions more effectively.