Analysis On The Determinants Of Export Of Chinese Service Trade

With the rapid growth of service trade output, it is playing a more and more important role in the economic growth and industrial structure update. Although the developed countries are maintaining the dominant position in the world service trade, it still can be seen that the service trade in China has leapt forward after its entry into WTO. The rapid growth not only shows the great potential of Chinese trade still lags fairly far behind compared with the other countries in the world. As a result, it is academically important to make a research on the service trade in China, find out the determinants factors and explore the methods to speed up trade in services exports, so as to boost the development of the Chinese economy and service trade.By applying the qualitative and quantitative methods, this paper attempts to make a comprehensive evaluation and analysis on the service trade in China today, finds out the determinants factors. The specific orders of the paper are presented in the following:The thesis consists of six chapters. The first part is the introductory remarks. It defines the background and practical significance of the research, reviews the relative researches of service trade from the previous scholars and experts in the first two chapters. After summing up the previous studies on this issue, it is pointed out that the present study on the determinants factors of service trade is not comprehensive in analysis. It also describes the ideas and research methods of this thesis, as well as the innovation and weakness of this article. In the second part, it describes the development of China's service trade export status. The third section describes the choice of theoretical basis of the determinants of service trade exports, in which it is studied from the service trade theory of comparative advantage to competitive advantage theory. And then I compare the two to highlight the advantages of competitive advantage theory, but also to illustrate the theoretical basis for selecting competitive advantage. The forth section describes the determinants of service trade export under competitive advantage theory. From the third section, we obtain the advantage of competitive advantage theory. In this part, we use the theory to analysis the present situation of service trade in China and pick out different factors to prepare for the next part. In the fifth part, based on the above selected factors, choose the dates and establishe the econometric model to describe the influencing factors of the service trade in China with method of co-integration.At last, this paper arrives at the following conclusions:Based on the National Diamond theory of Prof. Porter, this paper selects 6 different factors that will determine the export of service trade in China. The factors are FDI, human resources, the export of merchandise trade, openness of market trade in services, per capita GDP, and service development (measured by the output value of tertiary industry). After the analysis by the co -integration, Error-correction model and Granger Causality test, this paper finds out that the export of service trade has a long equilibrium relationship with the other variables, including FDI, human resources, the export of merchandise trade, per capita GDP, and the output of the third industry. And FDI, the output of the third industry and the export of merchandise trade is the reason of the change of the export of service trade. This paper also finds that the export of service trade has a positive correlation with the variables of FDI, the export of merchandise trade, per capita GDP, and the output of the third industry, but it has a big negative correlation with human resources. At the same time, the variables of human resources, the export of merchandise trade, per capita GDP, and the output of the third industry will adjust fast to the export of service trade. With the above analysis, this paper puts forward the strategic suggestions for accelerating the export of service trade in China.