Research And Analysis On Emergency Evacuation And Shelter Location For Chemical Industry Park

In recent years, following the increasing amount and expanding scale, the chemical industry park in China is still far from security for the occasionally accidents. With the development outlook of human-oriented and safety first going deeply into human mind, the safety emergency field has got more and more attention from the science researches. The theory study and model building for safety evacuation and shelter siting increased rapidly. However, for plenty of hazardous sources widely distributed and the potential different disasters, it is comparatively complicated to carry out the research in the chemical industry park. Therefore, combined the characteristics of the chemical industry park, analyzing the evacuation process and optimizing the emergency shelter site will be our focus in the research.In the aspect of emergency evacuation, a modified traffic flow Markov model has been applied to simulating the whole dynamic evacuation process of choosing route with considering the toxic gas effects impairing the route capacity. For different distance from leakage source causing different decision, the evacuation area has been divided into three parts to reflect the different proportion of the possible gas inhalation and time cost in choosing an evacuation route. The evacuee clear time in the three zones has been calculated in case study, as well as the sensibility of the weight parameters denoting the time cost and health cost.In the aspect of emergency shelter location, On the basis of regret theory, a regret-model was built combining the utility function to study the shelter location problems in chemical industry park. The effects on shelters caused by factories location, accident influence scope, number of evacuees, and probability of the accidents were considered. A concept of equivalent time was proposed based on the evacuee distribution and actual transfer time. Finally, the proposed model was applied to the shelters location problem of Xiaohu chemical industry park, and the sensibility of parameters θ and δ was analyzed.