| In the real environment, biotoxins often exist in the form of mixture, which have a joint toxicity effect to environment and human. The uncertainty of joint toxicity give environment and human much potential threat. Currently, risk assessment of biotoxins is based on the single biotoxin toxicity, which may underestimate the risk of biotoxins. Aflatoxin Bl and Zearalenone are two of the most frequently detected biotoxins, and a little will lead to serious problems. Therefore, evaluate the pollution of Aflatoxin B1 and Zearalenone in our country, assess biotoxins’joint toxicity together with pollution in our country, establish mathematical model of risk assessment, make sure the type and intensity of joint toxicity between biotoxins quantitatively, which has very important significance.In this paper, by the combination of the climate similarity and cluster analysis method, I evaluate the pollution of Aflatoxin B1 and Zearalenone in our country. Results show that the most series areas of Aflatoxin Bl concentrate in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze river region, while Zearalenone’s pollution areas concentrate in central and southern China and southeast coastal area.By overall risk probability model, I evaluate Aflatoxin B1 and Zearalenone’s risk as a single one or mixture on different time. In addition, I promote the model to evaluate the risk of Aflatoxin B1 and Zearalenone mixed in different proportion on different time. Results show that, with the advance of time risk probability increases; Zearalenone has higher risk (6.09%) than Aflatoxin B1(4.03%); Aflatoxin Bl:Zearalenone= 3:1 or 1:1 has the highest risk, respectively up to 9.34% and 12.07%.Put joint toxicity coefficient in overall risk probability model to assess Aflatoxin B1 and Zearalenone’s joint toxicity on the type and intensity. Results show that the type between Aflatoxin B1 and Zearalenone is synergy; Aflatoxin Bl:Zearalenone=1:2 is the strongest; with the advance of time synergy are also enhanced. |
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