The Risk Assessment Of Account Receivable Model Based On Bayesian Network Under Supply Chain Environment

Nowadays, under the environment of fierce market competition, most enterprise will supply chain with upstream and downstream suppliers and retailers, in order to avoid defeated by rival in the competition, and increase their competition risk resistance ability. Because of blind pursuit of expansionary market policy, enterprises sale the goods to the downstream enterprise by trustworthiness so as to improve the market share of their goods and increase their income, will increase the accounts receivable. High percentage of accounts receivable will increase all the risks of the enterprise and bring huge economic losses to the enterprise. And due to the the conduction characteristic of supply chain risk, accounts receivable risk is passed to upstream enterprises step by step in the process of delivery, that will increase the risk of accounts receivable. At present, most of the accounts receivable risk assessment is qualitative description and quantitative analysis model is rarely. Such a model requires a large number of historical data, but we know that there are relatively few available accounts receivable historical data before credit transactions is finished, And as the conduction effect of supply chain risk, so the degree of the accounts receivable risk is difficult to accurately quantify. This article is under the environment of supply chain, based on the analysis of logical relationship between different variables which will be decided to accounts receivable risk, uses fuzzy theory to quantify the impact factors, combined with the interdependent relationship of supply chain between upstream and downstream enterprises and the conduction characteristic of supply chain risk, proposed the quantitative evaluation of accounts receivable risk model based on bayesian network model In order to assess the probability of risk in the future, Before the credit trading contract is signed. Enterprise can make corresponding credit policy according to it, in order to reduce the enterprise accounts receivable risk, reduce enterprise economic loss, to strengthen the management of accounts receivable.