Impact And Assessment Of Climate Change On Ecosystem

Climate change affects many aspects of the ecosystem and human. It will change the structure, function and productivity of the ecosystem, directly affects the survival of environment for human and the sustainable development of social economy. In the recent50years, the Jiangsu climate change rules are as follows: climate warming, the increased precipitation, sunshine hour decreased, and extreme weather frequent outbreaks. For creating a low carbon society, to achieve sustainable economic and social development, study on effects of climate change on ecosystem of Jiangsu and to assess the effects of future climate change on ecosystems in Jiangsu is of great significance.Firstly, the use of remote sensing data and based on land use landscape types classification is divided ecosystem types of Jiangsu. Secondly, using normalized difference vegetation index and pixel dichotomy model inversion vegetation coverage and using CAS A model to estimate the vegetation NPP of Jiangsu Province, to reflect effects of climate change on ecosystems. Subsequently, the application of equivalent conversion factor method to estimate the value of ecosystem services, using a linear regression model to simulate NDVI difference trend line, in order to carry out climate change on ecosystem quality assessment of Jiangsu. Then, Nanjing as a typical regional ecological system is used to know the response analyzing of ecological system on climate change. Finally, large-scale predictions under the RCP4.5and RCP8.5of regional climate model RegCM4is used to analysis of the future scenario of impacts of climate change on the ecosystem of Jiangsu. The following are the main conclusions.(1) Jiangsu ecosystem types are divided to farmland ecosystems, forest ecosystems, grassland ecosystems, water wetland ecosystems, urban ecosystems.(2) There are obvious differences in spatial and temporal vegetation cover in Jiangsu Province. The vegetation coverage of Jiangsu Province is mainly due to temperature. In terms of ecosystem functions, the results show that increasing the area of Jiangsu Province forest ecosystems, farmland ecosystems and wetland ecosystems, which has a positive effect on carbon fixation. Jiangsu vegetation NPP in2000-2012years is positively correlated with mean annual temperature, and annual precipitation is negatively correlated.(3) The results of the quality assessment of climate change on ecosystem of Jiangsu show that the quality of climate change on ecosystem stays stable from2000to2012. The temperature is a main factor, and it affected13years of vegetation NDVI and ecosystem quality in Jiangsu.2010in Jiangsu Province, the total ecosystem service values showed a decreasing trend than the past, and the contribution of wetland water ecosystems is maximum. Through research and analysis of the ecological footprint of Jiangsu Province shows that sustainable development is to be improved.(4) Nanjing as a typical area for the analysis the impacts of climate change on ecological system, the results show the ecosystem vegetation NPP of Nanjing2000-2012is a overall positive correlation with mean annual temperature, and the annual precipitation overall is negatively correlated. Pukou old mountain forest ecosystem response to climate change is more significant, the vegetation NPP is a significant positive correlation with mean annual temperature, and the annual precipitation is significant negatively correlated.