| In the study of Landscape Ecology, landscape pattern is an important research content, is also one of the focus research areas in recent years. Landscape pattern has closely associated with the ecological processes. The process is producing the pattern and the pattern is acting on the process in the same time, the both are influencing each other, working together and showing the corresponding landscape functions. In recent years, the impact of human activity on the landscape features are gradually increasing with the development of social economy, which brings many of the ecological security issues. Therefore, according to the regional characteristics of Suzhou and related researches,this paper choices18indicators to assess and predict the ecological security of Suzhou city in now and next20years by the Grey Prediction Model with the PSR model, and propose appropriate policy in the next step. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) The type of land use standards and four remote sensing data of Suzhou in1995,2000,2005,2010was used to classify the local landscape. Mainly divided into six categories:arable land, water, grasslands, forestlands, construction land and unused land. Classification results show that in2010, water area had the largest percentage of area by42.53%in various types of all landscape. The arable land and construction land were26.53%and27%of the total area. Besides, relatively small share were belonged to other types of landscape, forest lands, grasslands, unused land were2.17%,1.72%and0.05%. During1995-2010, arable land, grasslands and construction land area had changed to the larger magnitude, forestland, water and unused land had changed landscape area to a lesser extent. This changing was most caused by the significantly reduced of arable land area and the significantly increased of construction land area.(2)The analysis of the characteristics of the overall pattern of Suzhou Landscape changes: From1995to2010, the Shannon diversity index, evenness index both showed an upward trend, the fractal dimension declined in the first five years then remain unchanged after the next ten years, and the fragmentation index increased significantly. This suggests that in the past15years, the overall landscape pattern tends to improve the stability of Suzhou, but the lower the fractal dimension indicates Suzhou influenced by human disturbance, the overall landscape boundary morphological rules, each type of landscape showing a significant degree of uniformity upward trend, landscape fragmentation decreased, showing that the overall landscape pattern has good development trend.(3) The dynamic changes of the various types of landscape indices from1995to2010in Suzhou:arable and grassland decreased plaque area, forest area remained unchanged, and the construction land area waters are rising, mainly because urbanization lead to a lot less arable land. From1995to2010patch density of farmland, grassland, construction land decreased, while the woodland, water, unused land is showing a rising trend.(4) Based on the pressure-state-response model, combined with the economic, social and ecological environment the level of development of the Suzhou City, selected18representative evaluations, the evaluation index system established Suzhou ecological security.1995-2010ecological security level around Suzhou has improved overall, individual regional ecological security levels unchanged, but the ecological security index is rising, the overall ecological environment changed for the better, tend to improve ecosystem structure, basic services improve ecological resilience has improved.(5)In the next20years, the regions of Suzhou shows a clear upword trend, but the rate of rising is different.Within, the rate of rising of Changshu and Wujiang is fastest.Otherwise, the rate of rising of Zhangjiagang is slowest. |
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