Modelling Of Runoff On The Laohugou Glacier No.12in The Qilian Mountains

Glacier is the world’s largest freshwater reservoir, is the birthplace of many rivers, but also the distribution of freshwater resources focused on the formation and changes in river and water resources plays an important role. Glacier is considered the most sensitive indicators of climate change in the context of global warming, the melting of glaciers strengthened change on global water resources will have a huge impact, especially those rivers dependent on supply-oriented glacier, its watershed the impact can not be ignored. Qilian Mountains Laohugou Glacier No.12is located in the western part of the Shule River Basin, is one of the main glacier melt water supply Hexi Corridor region in northwest China, accounting for53.6%of the total area of the basin Laohugou glaciers, but also an important source of supply to the Changma River. In this paper, using HYCYMODEL to simulate the2009meltwater runoff processes, and verified the model with hydro-meteorological data in2012,and analyzed the sensitivity of the model.Tthe main findings are as follows:(l)Hydrometeorological characteristics in Laohugou glacier No.12The temperature of Glacier Laohugou No.12in2012range from-20℃to10℃; rainfall concentrated in June to August, accounting for49%of the year; runoff increases from late June, about in early August began to subside.(2)The rrunoff simulation in Laohugou Glacier No.12HYCYMODEL runoff process of Glacier Laohugou No.12can be well simulated,2009simulation efficiency coefficient NSE=0.72, the use of2012data obtained simulation results validate the efficiency coefficient NSE=0.79.(3) Simulation of2012Using HYCYMODEL simulate the runoff process in the year2012, of which June to September runoff accounted for88.8%of the year, and second half of July to first half of August accounted for51.2%of the year.(4)The sensitivity of HYCYMODELSet a different temperature and precipitation conditions, T+0P+0%, T+1P+0%,T+0P+10%, T-1P+0%, T+0P-10%, T+1P-10%, T-1P+10%, with T+0P+0%for the control group, the changes in the rest of the group were64.5%,2.9%..-44.8%,-2.5%、61.9%、-43.7%.