Short-and Long-Term Research Of Forecasting Methods And Business Systems Suitable For Viewing Period Of Red Leaves In Jiaohe

In this paper, the2002-2013Jiaohe red leaves valley of red leaves appear time, analyzes the continuous time and end time and digital processing, and the corresponding meteorological data of database is established, it daily average temperature, daily minimum temperature, daily range of temperature and relative humidity, sunshine time and first frost day situation has carried on the detailed statistics and analysis. Analyzed the meteorological conditions from different angles on the impact of the presence of the red leaves, in late September of meteorological elements mainly displays in:short larger relative humidity, sunshine hours and higher average temperatures is conducive to the emergence of red leaves and persistent.Based on the observation data of the maple leaf and continuous change of observation data, with the corresponding meteorological elements are analyzed in the fusion, based on meteorological elements of red leaves appear meteorological conditions index, according to the index system, determine the meteorological forecast factors that affects the red leaves appear. Due to the red leaves there period is closely related to meteorological elements change, in this paper, the meteorological elements and the relationship between the presence of the phase of the maple leaf research, found that red leaves began to turn red mainly by diurnal range temperature, daily minimum temperature and daily mean temperature influence, dumpling the red leaves valley of the river valley to the nearly north-south and perennial dominant wind direction-WSW direction is red leaves valley terrain duration long, the red autumn day valley sunshine condition good, high night temperature and humidity are down the ground, is red leaves valley last longer climate advantages. According to the building of various meteorological factors index threshold limit, set up short-term red leaves appear period meteorological forecast method, defines the Red Leaves Change Index (RLCI), and the corresponding red tourism and red leaves change index meteorological grade for classification, based on meteorological factor short-term red leaves appear issue of meteorological forecast method, and analysis of this method was verified. Application500hPa height field and SST field in the northern hemisphere, the environment and AO index analysis of the characteristics of Jiaohe change rule and character of the first frost, look for related predictors, may select the northern hemisphere subtropical high area index, north Africa subtropical high area index in March and April in the western Pacific subtropical high in west ridge point, July European Atlantic circulation type W, may the Atlantic European type C, June European Atlantic circulation type C and April Eurasian meridional circulation index using seven factors such as the sub set return to screening of various factors, and finally return to screen out the sub set the three factors, and north Africa subtropical high area index in March and April in the western Pacific subtropical high ridge point, west Eurasian meridional circulation index in April, established the red leaves appear period weather forecast the optimal regression equation for a long time, and the model test, the application effect is good. Finally, the design and development Jiaohe tourism weather forecast platform, will appear short red issue of meteorological forecast method and the forecast of the maple leaf long-term climate models to form the integrated application software, application of Jiaohe red tourism weather forecast service.